Algorithm Betting

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The performance of the Funds are now beginning to take shape. At the end of February, the Championship Fund is up 118%, Premier League Fund up 48% and the Trading Fund up 408%. Most of the gains in February have come from Championship tips including yesterday’s tips to back Notts Forest at Reading and Plymouth at Wolves.

Whilst the gains in the Premier League Fund may not seem as impressive as the other Funds, it does have the highest Sharpe Ratio at 2.16, by virtue of it’s low volatility month to month. Having said that, the Championship volatility is mostly high due to the Fund volatility being calculated from just 2 months.

This weekend’s results have driven the Championship Fund to a new high of 142.70, a gain of 42.7% since the start of the season. The backtesting had promised great things for this Fund with gains in excess of those of the Premier League Fund. However, the Fund had spent a lot of the season under water. The model has a tendency to back the underdog and with recent wins for Ipswich at QPR, Barnsley at Swansea and more notably Doncaster at Sheffield United the Fund has very quickly risen to meet those early expectations. Read the full article

With the second half of the season now well under way and just 5 points separating those in the bottom half of the table, which three teams will eventually face the drop? After a great start to the season, Hull seem to be going backwards. Tottenham on the other hand started badly but have lifted themselves out of the bottom 3. But who has the legs to make it to the end?

The following table shows the algorithm’s view of team strength. The number of points represents the ‘power’ of a team. The higher the points, the stronger the team. Hull may still have a league ranking of 9 but this is mostly from their great start. They’re actually languishing near bottom in terms of team strength with just 17.27 points versus Totttenham with 63.60. Read the full article

With losses showing for all 3 Funds for October i’m already looking forward to November’s games.  But before then I guess I should try and reflect on the month gone.  It’s not great looking back on a losing month but it may be useful if it can highlight any obvious errors or show it was just part of the randomness of results.

Firstly, a word on Harry’s move to Spurs.  I’ve always believed Harry Redknapp was ‘pound for pound’ the best manager in the Premier League.  Only Martin O’Neill comes close.  If you’re a Chairman in need of silverware and don’t speak Russian then Harry’s your man.  Expect to see some new faces at White Hart Lane come January and forget 40 yard cross-field balls or Cinderella turns.  Harry will build a team of strong, technically gifted players who earn their money and play for the team, not for the glory.  Good luck Harry and good luck to Tony Adams back at Fratton Park.

Read the full article

It’s been a very profitable month for all 3 of the Algorithm Betting Funds.  Especially pleasing is the performance of the Championship Fund which had a poor start but has returned to the excellent form it showed in backtesting.  The gains in the Fund prices for September are 59% for the Championship, 35% for the Premier League and 81% for the Trading Fund.

The Trading Fund flew through the hurdle of trebling its starting price with gains to date now standing at 266%.  The Premier Fund also now approaches its first hurdle of a doubling in price; the Fund is currently on gains of 94%.  Both of these funds have been operating for around half a season.  The Championship Fund is yet to pass 2 months old and currently stands on gains to date of 23%. Read the full article

It’s taken 7 weeks of games to come home, but come home it did.  Courtesy of Taylor-Fletcher and a 0-1 away win for Blackpool at Birmingham, the Championship Fund was boosted by 35%.  The odds were 9.6 and the Fund wagered just over 4% after calculating the odds offered 82% value.  Along with other winning bets this weekend the Championship Fund has moved into a positive position overall.  We’ll see over the coming weeks whether it’s a case of one leap forward followed by many small steps back.  It would be nice to stay above water before the next big win comes in.

By contrast the Premier League Fund fell back this weekend mainly due to losses on Liverpool and Pompey.  It does however remain ahead for the month of September.  The portfolio theory of running more than one fund is working well with any significant moves in one fund being offset by the other.  With just one week of games left in September i’m hoping the Trading Fund will break through the hurdle of 200% gains.

After the poor showing in the last week of August I was pleased to see September get off to a great start.  The Premier Fund recorded a gain of 16.5%, the Championship fund contributed a gain of just over 6% and the Trading Fund made hay with a gain of just under 24%.

A large part of the gains from last weekend came from Liverpool burying Man Utd at home.  Depsite what Andy Gray might have been looking at I thought Liverpool were the better team throughout the whole match.  They may have fallen to an early goal but apart from that lapse which came in the first few minutes Liverpool were very controlled.  I think the Reds are a great bet for the title if you want to see any decent return on your money. Read the full article

It’s been 2 weeks since the last set of games and August was not a great month performance wise.  The tips for the Premier League only just scraped a positive return of 2.84%.  The Championship and Trading Fund did even worse with -23% and -31% respectively.  It wasn’t great timing to double the stakes in the Trading Fund and only goes to confirm the idiocy of chasing gains.

2 weeks in the Premier League has once again seen an amazing amount of news.  Keegan leaves Newcastle and is then reported as having a meeting with Ashley just 8 days after resigning.  Man City get new owners which make Chelsea’s stars look like street beggars.  West Ham appoint Zola as a new manager and next day lose their shirt sponsor as XL Holidays go bust.  Read the full article