The 2 Premier League funds diverged this weekend.  Whilst the Alpha Fund took a slight loss, the Beta Fund managed a moderate gain.   As the Beta fund is an enhanced version of the Alpha fund it was good to see the Beta fund continuing to outperform.   See the stats below for relative performance of the 2 funds.

It was actually a very pleasing result for the Beta fund as it overcame the setback of laying Bolton v Man U (Bolton winning 1-0).  At market odds of 8.4 the win for Bolton was a rare event; even rarer at the Algorithm’s price of 11.85.  Of course, these rare events are by definition expected and therefore cannot be excluded as ‘unlucky’ or ‘one-offs’.  It’s just good to see the other match bets more than offsetting the loss in the same week.  The weekly gain is however easy to comprehend once you note the Algorithm backed all 5 winning away teams this week. View the detailed Beta fund results here.

PERFORMANCE OF ALGORITHM BETTING PREMIER LEAGUE FUNDS:

Weekly gain/loss in the fund (movement in the fund since last week): Alpha -2.9%, Beta +4.8%

Winning weeks (number of weeks showing gains/ total number of weeks since fund started): Alpha 12/14, Beta 7/7

% gain to date (% increase since the fund started): Alpha 37.2%, Beta +121.6%

Risk (max weekly gain/max weekly loss, insufficient data for standard deviations): Alpha 6.9%/-2.9%, Beta +49.6%/+4.8%

The Alpha algorithm is static and not improving with time and results.  It’s effectively just running ‘as is’ and will not learn from it’s mistakes.  As the Premier league changes the algorithm will therefore become less effective.  It still adapts to the relative performance of teams just not to the changing playing style of the league and it’s usefulness will therefore wear out with time.   This should be borne out by a deteriorating yield versus Beta. 

The beta algorithm however is self improving with it’s performance fed back into the algorithm to improve future performance.  Week to week this is not noticeable but it should ensure, provided match betting markets continues to be mispriced, yield and therefore profits are maintained.

As an example of this take winning bets, each season the % of winning bets for both home and away bets incrementally improves.

A real advance for the beta fund this weekend mostly down to the fact that all 9 bets won.  That’s now 6 out of 6 winning weeks since the Fund started on 29 September 07.  The less racy Alpha (level stakes) fund is up 41% since the start of the season with 12 out of 13 winning weeks.

I hope to add a German Bundesliga fund to the site in a few weeks once live testing is completed.  To date, this is showing great results, in line if not better than the English Premiership model.  I cannot seem to get any decent result with Spain’s La Liga.  This is either due to accurate betting prices or, more likely, an error in my work.  I have also started on a model for the Scottish Premier League.

By maintaining models across and betting on a number of leagues concurrently the risk of negative events is minimised.  It also adds more games and therefore turnover and profit.