Teach a man to fish..

The Alpha algorithm is static and not improving with time and results.  It’s effectively just running ‘as is’ and will not learn from it’s mistakes.  As the Premier league changes the algorithm will therefore become less effective.  It still adapts to the relative performance of teams just not to the changing playing style of the league and it’s usefulness will therefore wear out with time.   This should be borne out by a deteriorating yield versus Beta. 

The beta algorithm however is self improving with it’s performance fed back into the algorithm to improve future performance.  Week to week this is not noticeable but it should ensure, provided match betting markets continues to be mispriced, yield and therefore profits are maintained.

As an example of this take winning bets, each season the % of winning bets for both home and away bets incrementally improves.



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