With all 61 Premier league games in December finally over the results for the month are in.  Whilst a gain of +3.1% on the month is not going to change the world it does ensure the fund continues a 100% record of positive returns for each month since going live in September.  You can see the detailed results here.  The weekly gains are shown below.

PERFORMANCE OF ALGORITHM BETTING PREMIER LEAGUE FUNDS:

(Alpha fund is level stakes and began 11/8/07, Beta fund is % stakes and began 29/9/07) 

Weekly movement in fund: Alpha -1.1%, Beta +1.5%

Winning weeks (number of weeks showing gains/ total number of weeks since fund started): Alpha 14/19, Beta 10/12

% increase since the fund started: Alpha +35.4%, Beta +128.5%

Risk (max weekly gain/max weekly loss, insufficient data for standard deviations):

Alpha +6.9%/-2.9%, Beta +49.6%/-21.9%

West Ham were the only team to do the double over Man U and Arsenal in 2006/7.  This weekend they once again they dismiss Man U at Upton Park.  Unfortunately the fund was again on the losing end of this match and suffered an 11% loss from it.  However, just as in November the resulsts from the rest of today’s matches more than made up for the loss.

On to today’s games where we lay both Derby and Blackburn and back Liverpool v Man City.  Derby and Man City continue to receive a low rating by the model and hence are layed.   However whilst Derby’s play seems to justify this rating Man City still appear undervalued.  Their performance last week, a draw at home to Blackburn, did improve their rating in the model from 4.85 to 5.12 but this only places them 15 out of 20 in the Premier league.

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
Derby 22.03 5.30 -76%  Blackburn 1.94 1.83 -6%
Man City 27.41 4.30 -84%  Liverpool 1.92 2.10 9%

More football today with a further set of fixtures on New Year’s day.  Who says they don’t earn their money!  Looking back at previous results for the fund does not indicate December, with it’s heavy calender, is an exception to the rule.  That is to say just because there are alot of games (and merriment) in December does not stop the model predicting value bets.  There were 2 losing Decembers in the previous 7 seasons which is not an exceptional win/lose ratio.

The closest market odds to our calculated odds today is Tottenham whilst the best value is found with Sunderland and Wigan.  Both teams offer value of over 70% but Sunderland should be backed v Bolton whilst Wigan layed v Villa.

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
Birmingham 1.31 1.97 51%  Fulham 7.56 4.90 -35%
Chelsea 1.15 1.48 29%  Newcastle 13.25 10.00 -25%
Everton 8.55 3.60 -58%  Arsenal 2.09 2.36 13%
Portsmouth 1.37 1.68 22%  Middlesbrough 6.60 7.00 6%
Sunderland 1.63 2.84 74%  Bolton 4.69 2.88 -39%
Tottenham 1.60 1.53 -4%  Reading 4.84 7.80 61%
West Ham 9.81 7.80 -21%  Man United 2.06 1.56 -24%
Wigan 12.42 3.40 -73%  Aston Villa 2.01 2.36 17%

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.  Indeed it’s almost up there with seeing into the future.  Whilst I do not know what the current algorithm model will do in the future I can see how it performed in the past with the benefit of hindsight.  A somewhat fruitless task but fun nonetheless.

So using the existing model I use week to week I amended the stake sizes (same fixed % for all games) to maximise the fund value as at today.  The model begins betting from the 2000/1 season and so includes 7 1/2 seasons including 2007/8 (5718 bets on 2859 matches!).  The average gain per season (counting this 1/2 season as a full season) is 2774%; i.e. profits of over 27x the starting fund each season.  The maximum return in a season was 9594% in 2003/4 and minimum was 137% in 2002/3; i.e. no losing seasons. 

Continued

The final of the Boxing day games is played today before the long 2 day wait until the next set of games on Saturday.  We go for Blackburn in this game but this is mostly down to the algorithm slating Man City for their 6-0 drubbing at the hands of Chelsea in October.  City’s recent form is certainly better than Blackburn’s and at home they are strong favourites.  Indeed, i’m surprised the market odds are not shorter than 2.3.  Still, the model favours Blackburn and if they do win the fund will be up over the Boxing day games. 

DATE HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
27/12/07 Man City 4.73 2.30 -51%  Blackburn 2.39 3.80 59%

What a great tradition we have in the UK to have top flight football on Boxing Day.  It sure beats Chitty Chitty Bang Bang and the Sound of Music.  Though I do subscribe to the theory we will never have a decent national side with so much domestic football.  However, personally speaking I would rather have the best domestic league in the world.

On to today’s games, odds posted below.  Sorry again about the formatting - if anyone can help me create tables in Wordpress please let me know.

Quite a lot of interest here.  What stands out by a mile is the Algorithm model’s odds on Derby of 330.65.  I would think personally that Derby would be on lower odds if they turned up with 1 player.  Clearly, the Algorithm is understating their chances especially after their performance at Newcastle.  However, they did not, relatively, create that many chances and lost the lead twice.  So versus Liverpool whom the model still rates in the number 1 spot they are given such a wide price.

Aston Villa’s price v Chelsea has come in from over 10 to 9 now and that has taken it from being backed to now being layed by the model.  The model prices Villa at 9.34.

The model still likes Portsmouth so they are being backed against the Gunners.  Hoping for a return to form there.

Showing again the model does not always back favourites even though it often prices long shots very wide is the Sunderland v Man U game.  Both teams’ market price is lower than the model’s price so both are being layed and we plump for the draw.  Conversely, with Everton v Bolton we look for a result; prefereably Bolton of course at odds of 5.80.

Well, we will see, hopefully the model’s results will return to form!

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value

Birmingham 3.31 2.42 -27% Middlesbrough 2.72 3.50 29%

Chelsea 1.32 1.56 18% Aston Villa 9.34 9.00 -4%

Derby 330.65 13.00 -96% Liverpool 1.86 1.32 -29%

Everton 1.58 1.84 16% Bolton 5.59 5.80 4%

Portsmouth 3.37 5.00 48% Arsenal 2.70 1.90 -30%

Sunderland 34.81 11.00 -68% Man United  1.91 1.40 -27%

Tottenham 1.17 1.48 26% Fulham 18.80 9.60 -49%

West Ham 2.43 2.00 -18% Reading 3.28 4.50 37%

Wigan 14.09 2.80 -80% Newcastle 2.00 2.84 42%

A 2% loss on last week’s results made it a second losing week on the trot for the Beta fund.  And again, whilst this the overall P&L performance is still within trend it is disappointing after 9 winning weeks on the run. The Alpha was up 1.3% on the week.  You can see the long run performance of the Beta fund here.

Here are the summary stats for this week gone:

PERFORMANCE OF ALGORITHM BETTING PREMIER LEAGUE FUNDS:

(Alpha fund is level stakes, Beta fund is % stakes) 

Weekly movement in fund: Alpha +1.3%, Beta -2.0%

Winning weeks (number of weeks showing gains/ total number of weeks since fund started): Alpha 14/18, Beta 9/11

% increase since the fund started: Alpha +36.8%, Beta +125.2%

Risk (max weekly gain/max weekly loss, insufficient data for standard deviations):

Alpha +6.9%/-2.9%, Beta +49.6%/-21.9%

West Ham winning away at Middlesbrough cost the fund nearly 7%.  Whilst this game upset Saturday’s results it should have been more than offset by other results.  However only 2 winning match bets out of 7 is poor.  There were 2 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws (which result in zero P&L) on the day.

I took a look back at the performance of the model to see how this season compares with previous.  There are so many stats which I could mention but the one of interest was winning bets. This season, albeit only half way through, we have 68% and 61% winning home and away bets respectively.  When you consider this season there are 47% and 27% home and away wins respectively in the Premier League the model is performing very well.  The historic averages of previous seasons are 59% and 52% home and away winning bets.   Generally there has been improvement over the seasons.  However, if this season finishes near 68%/61% I will be ’supra la luna’!

If the 3 games today go as the odds indicate then the fund will be up on the week.  Of course, games rarely go as expected!  Here are the games, odds and bets. 

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value

Blackburn 7.73 4.60 -40%  Chelsea 2.15 1.95 -9%
Man United 1.18 1.46 24%  Everton 18.14 10.00 -45%
Newcastle 1.08 1.37 27%  Derby 87.63 12.00 -86%

Best value is laying Derby whom the model gives near to no chance of a win at odds of 88.  The closest to fair value is Chelsea with market odds of 1.95 and model odds of 2.15.  As both Blackburn and Chelsea are priced too short we are laying both and therefore hoping for the draw in that game.  We are also looking for home wins from Man U and Newcastle. 

It’s a nervous weekend of games after last week’s losses.  Although 2 losing weeks on the trot is not an unknown for the model it is a remote event and one I do not want to see played out this weekend.  Therefore I have more than my fingers crossed that we get back on track with this weekend’s selections.

I have made some changes to the algorithm, albeit minor.  It was just a bit of tweaking of the input variables which has resulted in improved performance over all seasons and more importantly, this season. 

The best value today is backing Birmingham away offering 90% value at Bolton whereas the closest odds produced by our model versus the market is Arsenal with just 4% value.   One point of interest is the model lays Portsmouth which is the first time in recent times the market odds have been priced too short to offer value in backing Pompey.  This is likely due to Portsmouth’s loss last week combined with the very high rating the model has for Liverpool.

DATE HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
22/12/07 Arsenal 1.49 1.55 4%  Tottenham 6.44 7.80 21%
22/12/07 Aston Villa 1.31 2.04 56%  Man City 9.71 4.80 -51%
22/12/07 Bolton 3.55 1.88 -47%  Birmingham 2.64 5.00 90%
22/12/07 Fulham 1.46 2.22 52%  Wigan 6.73 3.90 -42%
22/12/07 Liverpool 1.33 1.58 19%  Portsmouth 9.12 7.80 -14%
22/12/07 Middlesbrough 2.01 2.30 14%  West Ham 3.91 3.50 -10%
22/12/07 Reading 1.32 1.88 42%  Sunderland 9.29 5.20 -44%

Not a great weekend of games for the fund to say the least, losing some 22%.  Whilst I knew that one week would see a big fall I did not expect it to be due to a poor strike rate.  I had thought it would more likely come from laying a long shot.  I would hate to see a week with a low strike rate and a long shot coming in against me.

This weekend there were only 3 winning bets and 5 losing bets with 2 draws.  The strike rate of winning match bets moved down to 67% and the yield (return on money at risk) fell to 6.1%.  These figures are around the long run expected values so the fund has really just fallen from unsustainable highs back to its long term trend.

I saw the Liverpool v Man U match and it was my impression that Liverpool had most of the play.  Whilst the Man U goal was a well worked set piece they threatened little during the game.  This apparent divergence between the result and game performance does level out over the season.  That is, sometimes the luck (or ‘white noise’) goes for you and sometimes against.  And as long as it does cancel itself out over time it should not stop the fund growing in value.  The rather nasty looking stats for this week are below:

PERFORMANCE OF ALGORITHM BETTING PREMIER LEAGUE FUNDS:

Weekly movement in fund: Alpha -2.2%, Beta -21.9%

Winning weeks (number of weeks showing gains/ total number of weeks since fund started): Alpha 13/17, Beta 9/10

% increase since the fund started: Alpha +35.0%, Beta +129.8%

Risk (max weekly gain/max weekly loss, insufficient data for standard deviations):

Alpha +6.9%/-2.9%, Beta +49.6%/-21.9%