It just goes to show how misleading statistics can be.  Reading win 3-1 at home and yet Liverpool had by far most of the play.  Portsmouth win 1-3 away and yet it was Villa with all the chances until they went 2 goals down, opened up at the back and then scored themselves!  The result in these games therefore do not reflect the performance of the teams.  That’s why when picking selections you need to do more than just look at a teams last result.

Even the return over a week (11 games this week) can be skewed by random outcomes.  A month is a better assessment of performance. So, there’s the rider, now on to Sunday’s games.

I’m not confident about these games.  Though that is often the case.  The Algorithm rates Spurs highly though their league position and results really do not support it.  Man City are also flying high in the league and yet we have 73% value on Spurs and -63% on Man City.  Does this give a clue to the decay of form I am using or are Spurs all flare and no punch.  Sure, if Spurs win and we look back at the result in years to come it will be no suprise but right now it just seems far fetched. 

It’s also annoying that prices have moved against me since yesterday, i.e. market prices have come closer to mine which means less value. Ho hum.  I need to keep reminding myself of the long term.

DATE HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
09/12/07 Blackburn 1.61 1.95 21%  West Ham 4.76 4.80 1%
09/12/07 Bolton 1.51 1.98 31%  Wigan 5.39 5.00 -7%
09/12/07 Middlesbrough 9.13 8.00 -12%  Arsenal 1.90 1.58 -17%
09/12/07 Tottenham 1.22 2.10 73%  Man City 11.69 4.30 -63%