West Ham winning away at Middlesbrough cost the fund nearly 7%.  Whilst this game upset Saturday’s results it should have been more than offset by other results.  However only 2 winning match bets out of 7 is poor.  There were 2 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws (which result in zero P&L) on the day.

I took a look back at the performance of the model to see how this season compares with previous.  There are so many stats which I could mention but the one of interest was winning bets. This season, albeit only half way through, we have 68% and 61% winning home and away bets respectively.  When you consider this season there are 47% and 27% home and away wins respectively in the Premier League the model is performing very well.  The historic averages of previous seasons are 59% and 52% home and away winning bets.   Generally there has been improvement over the seasons.  However, if this season finishes near 68%/61% I will be ’supra la luna’!

If the 3 games today go as the odds indicate then the fund will be up on the week.  Of course, games rarely go as expected!  Here are the games, odds and bets. 

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value

Blackburn 7.73 4.60 -40%  Chelsea 2.15 1.95 -9%
Man United 1.18 1.46 24%  Everton 18.14 10.00 -45%
Newcastle 1.08 1.37 27%  Derby 87.63 12.00 -86%

Best value is laying Derby whom the model gives near to no chance of a win at odds of 88.  The closest to fair value is Chelsea with market odds of 1.95 and model odds of 2.15.  As both Blackburn and Chelsea are priced too short we are laying both and therefore hoping for the draw in that game.  We are also looking for home wins from Man U and Newcastle.