What a great tradition we have in the UK to have top flight football on Boxing Day.  It sure beats Chitty Chitty Bang Bang and the Sound of Music.  Though I do subscribe to the theory we will never have a decent national side with so much domestic football.  However, personally speaking I would rather have the best domestic league in the world.

On to today’s games, odds posted below.  Sorry again about the formatting - if anyone can help me create tables in Wordpress please let me know.

Quite a lot of interest here.  What stands out by a mile is the Algorithm model’s odds on Derby of 330.65.  I would think personally that Derby would be on lower odds if they turned up with 1 player.  Clearly, the Algorithm is understating their chances especially after their performance at Newcastle.  However, they did not, relatively, create that many chances and lost the lead twice.  So versus Liverpool whom the model still rates in the number 1 spot they are given such a wide price.

Aston Villa’s price v Chelsea has come in from over 10 to 9 now and that has taken it from being backed to now being layed by the model.  The model prices Villa at 9.34.

The model still likes Portsmouth so they are being backed against the Gunners.  Hoping for a return to form there.

Showing again the model does not always back favourites even though it often prices long shots very wide is the Sunderland v Man U game.  Both teams’ market price is lower than the model’s price so both are being layed and we plump for the draw.  Conversely, with Everton v Bolton we look for a result; prefereably Bolton of course at odds of 5.80.

Well, we will see, hopefully the model’s results will return to form!

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value

Birmingham 3.31 2.42 -27% Middlesbrough 2.72 3.50 29%

Chelsea 1.32 1.56 18% Aston Villa 9.34 9.00 -4%

Derby 330.65 13.00 -96% Liverpool 1.86 1.32 -29%

Everton 1.58 1.84 16% Bolton 5.59 5.80 4%

Portsmouth 3.37 5.00 48% Arsenal 2.70 1.90 -30%

Sunderland 34.81 11.00 -68% Man United  1.91 1.40 -27%

Tottenham 1.17 1.48 26% Fulham 18.80 9.60 -49%

West Ham 2.43 2.00 -18% Reading 3.28 4.50 37%

Wigan 14.09 2.80 -80% Newcastle 2.00 2.84 42%

A 2% loss on last week’s results made it a second losing week on the trot for the Beta fund.  And again, whilst this the overall P&L performance is still within trend it is disappointing after 9 winning weeks on the run. The Alpha was up 1.3% on the week.  You can see the long run performance of the Beta fund here.

Here are the summary stats for this week gone:

PERFORMANCE OF ALGORITHM BETTING PREMIER LEAGUE FUNDS:

(Alpha fund is level stakes, Beta fund is % stakes) 

Weekly movement in fund: Alpha +1.3%, Beta -2.0%

Winning weeks (number of weeks showing gains/ total number of weeks since fund started): Alpha 14/18, Beta 9/11

% increase since the fund started: Alpha +36.8%, Beta +125.2%

Risk (max weekly gain/max weekly loss, insufficient data for standard deviations):

Alpha +6.9%/-2.9%, Beta +49.6%/-21.9%