Hindsight is a wonderful thing.  Indeed it’s almost up there with seeing into the future.  Whilst I do not know what the current algorithm model will do in the future I can see how it performed in the past with the benefit of hindsight.  A somewhat fruitless task but fun nonetheless.

So using the existing model I use week to week I amended the stake sizes (same fixed % for all games) to maximise the fund value as at today.  The model begins betting from the 2000/1 season and so includes 7 1/2 seasons including 2007/8 (5718 bets on 2859 matches!).  The average gain per season (counting this 1/2 season as a full season) is 2774%; i.e. profits of over 27x the starting fund each season.  The maximum return in a season was 9594% in 2003/4 and minimum was 137% in 2002/3; i.e. no losing seasons. 

Amazingly the model withstood a loss of 75% of the fund’s value in one match, Middlesbrough beating Man U 1-0 at Old Trafford on 23/3/02.  The market odds on Middlesbrough were 11 whereas the model priced them slightly higher at 14.29.  There were many other large losses on single games but set against an average return on each game of 1.32% of the fund value and 63% winning match bets it is easy to understand how the fund can grow so quickly.

Whilst no prediction of future performance, the above shows the power of compounding and the possibility of large profits over time.  The maximum % stake bet in the above on any one match was 8% of the fund.