More football today with a further set of fixtures on New Year’s day.  Who says they don’t earn their money!  Looking back at previous results for the fund does not indicate December, with it’s heavy calender, is an exception to the rule.  That is to say just because there are alot of games (and merriment) in December does not stop the model predicting value bets.  There were 2 losing Decembers in the previous 7 seasons which is not an exceptional win/lose ratio.

The closest market odds to our calculated odds today is Tottenham whilst the best value is found with Sunderland and Wigan.  Both teams offer value of over 70% but Sunderland should be backed v Bolton whilst Wigan layed v Villa.

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
Birmingham 1.31 1.97 51%  Fulham 7.56 4.90 -35%
Chelsea 1.15 1.48 29%  Newcastle 13.25 10.00 -25%
Everton 8.55 3.60 -58%  Arsenal 2.09 2.36 13%
Portsmouth 1.37 1.68 22%  Middlesbrough 6.60 7.00 6%
Sunderland 1.63 2.84 74%  Bolton 4.69 2.88 -39%
Tottenham 1.60 1.53 -4%  Reading 4.84 7.80 61%
West Ham 9.81 7.80 -21%  Man United 2.06 1.56 -24%
Wigan 12.42 3.40 -73%  Aston Villa 2.01 2.36 17%