Another winning week for the betting Fund with gains to date of 231% since the Fund started on 29 September 07.  The Fund is now 113 days ahead of its target balance at this stage in the bid for £1million after 5 years - see progress here.   

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A good day yesterday as all 4 tips were winning bets.  Today’s betting tips are shown and discussed below.  To view a history of all bets and the Fund results in detail go here.  To see a summary of the Fund’s progress against the target £1million go here.

Chelsea v Reading.  Only 8% value in laying Chelsea so only a small stake is taken. Reading market odds of 20 are great value against the algorithm calculated odds but under this new algorithm no backing bets are placed.

Derby v Man City.  A major game for the Fund as there is a massive 98% value on Derby.  Derby have only 1 game all season and Man City are fighting for a place in Europe. However, Man City have gone off the boil in recent games and are not so strong away from home.  A win for Derby would hit the Fund for around 20%.
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Betting exchanges claim that you will get 20% better prices in horse betting. Better prices to the horse player, simply means making more money from winners!  Great, everyone would want that…if the claim is true.

I decided to put the claim to the test! I created a scenario of betting the horses…at the track, online with a traditional online race book and at a betting exchange, www.ehorsex.com, to see which method is most profitable and by how much.  I looked at the results for all stakes races in 2007, starting on January 1st until June 30th, a total of 260 races.  In the end, I found that by betting at ehorseX, net profits were 23.9 to 32.4% better than if you were to bet the same amount, on the same horses, getting tracks odds. Now if you have already become an exchange player, better prices are what you have come to expect.  However, if you have yet to experience exchange betting, you may be unfamiliar with the value that they bring to the horse player.  You may also need more convincing as to the validity of these percentages.  Here is a detailed look at how this comparison was conducted.
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I’ve been tinkering with the algorithm model over the past week or so.  The result is lower risk and higher yield - the perfect combination.  This is of course based on the results output from the new algorithm.  In some way this goes without saying but I think it’s always good to remember this point.  If the model’s wrong then performance will be worse than predicted.  How much worse?  The trouble is you cannot measure what you don’t know!
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Just one betting tip in the Premier League today as the F.A. Cup 4th round takes place.

Aston Villa v Blackburn.  Algorithm odds are very close to the WBX betting exchange odds with both sides offering value.  We therefore back both teams and look for a result either way.

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Aston Villa 1.90 1.98 4%  £4.49  Blackburn 4.23 5.00 18%  £1.50

Here is the weekly performance of the betting fund after the betting tips for the football last weekend, 19-21 January 08.  To see the detailed betting results for each game see the Fund page.  With a gain in the betting fund of 12% over the weekend the fund is now 102 days ahead of target.  However, I consider these 102 days as a reserve against 2 things. Firstly, there are no games during the summer months and therefore the fund will not advance whereas the target advances 0.51% every day.  I have marked where the fund needs to be at the start of next season on the About page.  Secondly, there is always the chance of getting hit with a bad loss.  When these hit they hit hard, sometimes up to 25-30% of the fund’s value.  This would translate to a setback of around £75-100. Though this would still leave us above target! 
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No surprise with today’s betting tip as the algorithm rates Liverpool in the number 1 position of all Premier League teams.  Liverpool are backed and Aston Villa layed with 26% and 37% value respectively.  I just hope the back office rumblings at Anfield don’t get in the way of the players earning their first Premier League win of 2008. 
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Below are today’s betting tips.  A good day yesterday, the results of which I will post once all this weekend’s games are finished.

Man City v West Ham.  The algorithm still has Man City rated way below their form though they did lose last week.   West Ham are priced much shorter than the market due to the low rating of Man City.  The algorithm therefore tips an away win.

Wigan v Everton.  The market odds in this match are much closer to the algorithm’s odds.  Indeed Everton is priced just below the market odds with 0% value due to rounding.  Another away win is therefore tipped.
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The midweek Premier league news suggests this is going to be a really interesting weekend for the algorithm.  Harry stays at Pompey minus 4 first team players, Newcastle get Keegan and the Dubai Government is trying to buy Liverpool.  None of which the algorithm takes into account as the effect cannot be reliably quantified.  I cannot see the Liverpool news influencing play but certainly there is consideration needed for Portsmouth and Newcastle.  I will deal with that as I comment on each game and the betting tips below.  Odds and stakes are shown at the bottom of this post.
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A story about how a winning streak can fool and lead to a mispricing of risk.

Rare as apples 

When I was a young lad I remember holding an apple and wondering, in one of my more philosophical moments, how remote the chances were that I should be holding this particular apple.  It was a French apple and I began imagining all the apples in all the orchards in France.  This single apple was picked, packed and journeyed across the Channel.  It was then passed to one of many distributors and sold to one of a thousand shops selling a million apples.  What are the chances, I pondered, of seeing that apple on a tree in the orchard and then it landing in my hand days later.  I didn’t really know the chances of course, I just knew they were remote.  I also understood that since I had an apple in my hand, one apple from one orchard was always going to make that identical journey just as I had imagined it. 
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