Just over half way through the season now and the betting fund is ahead of target - see here. 

Today’s 4 games are the last fixtures in the Premier League until 12 January.  The home teams are favoured by the model today which would suggest more winning bets than losses. However if Sunderland, Wigan or Man City win it will hit the fund where it hurts, not least of all Wigan at odds of 20. 

Not to go on about it but Man City’s rating is down again after they closed up shop at home v Liverpool.  You could argue they deserve the downgrading but they achieved their aim of not losing.  Perhaps the algorithm should calculate a rating for backing and another for laying? I’m not even sure that makes sense!

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
Blackburn 1.37 1.58 16%  Sunderland 8.43 7.20 -15%
Bolton 1.51 1.52 1%  Derby 6.32 8.40 33%
Liverpool 1.09 1.25 15%  Wigan 98.41 20.00 -80%
Newcastle 1.45 2.40 66%  Man City 7.04 3.40 -52%

When I tell people about how I bet on the Premier League the question I am most often asked is, “Er, what’s an algorithm?”.  Well, it’s nothing more than a series of calculations.  They don’t have to be complex, they just follow one after the other.  The output from one calculation is used for the input to the next and so on.  Excel is a great platform for entering and holding the orginal input data, performing calculations and displaying and analysing the results.

Continued