With the season half over I have taken a look at how the model’s ranking of teams compares with their Premier league position.

As can be seen in the table below most teams’ league position is similar to their algorithm ranking.  A ranking above the league position suggests all flare and no substance or plain bad luck.  For a team to be unlucky over 20 mathces however is unlikely.  It is more likely to suggest therefore a good team with lots of chances but lacking the finishing ability or unable to close out a match.  Conversely a team with a league position above their ranking shows an ability to get results without creating a lot of chances or dominating a game.
Continued