And finally after the Christmas games we’re back to normal again with the Premier League fixtures.  The model’s betting fund is currently 60 days ahead of target. Though as I only bet on the Premier League with this model it needs to be ahead by the end of the season as there will be no games in the off-season to earn money on.  You can see the progress of the fund against target here.

Listed below are today’s betting tips thrown out by the algorithm.  Sorry about the formatting but there is no quick and easy way of getting all the figures into a table.  I have added the stake figures as well and will do so from now on.  A positive £ figure is a stake backing the team.  A negative figure is the stake which I take in laying the team.  So, in the first match below I am backing Arsenal with a stake of £0.99 (potential win 0.22*£0.99) and laying a stake on Birmingham of £6.91 (potential loss 22*£6.91).

Quite a bit of Premier League news since the new year.  Not least of all surrounding everyone’s favourite manager Harry Redknapp at Pompey.  I am so glad (he looks like) he’s staying as i’m from the south coast myself and am enjoying Portsmouth’s success.  Anelka also moves to Chelsea for £15m where he will no doubt play a few games till Drogba comes back, get moody and leave.

Turning to the bets then.  The model and market odds on Aston Villa look exactly the same but this is due to rounding.  There is slight value in the lay hence the negative stake.  I’m laying both Derby and Wigan looking for a draw there.  The two teams which the model has the most trouble predicting meet today when Man City travel to Everton.  The model looks for a home win which I personally think is the right bet. 

Overall looking at the model odds and subsequent bets I am very pleased.  Hopefully we can move further ahead of the budgeted fund value.

DATE HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
12/01/08 Arsenal 1.14 1.22 7%  £0.99   Birmingham 27.71 23.00 -17% -£6.91
12/01/08 Aston Villa 1.63 1.63 0% -£5.06   Reading 5.34 7.20 35%  £2.02
12/01/08 Chelsea 1.34 1.90 42%  £1.02   Tottenham 9.06 5.50 -39% -£7.17
12/01/08 Derby 3.64 3.20 -12% -£5.25   Wigan 2.62 2.54 -3% -£7.35
12/01/08 Everton 1.43 2.22 55%  £1.10   Man City 7.29 4.00 -45% -£7.72
12/01/08 Man United 1.16 1.27 9%  £1.13   Newcastle 22.58 19.00 -16% -£7.91
12/01/08 Middlesbrough 14.02 6.00 -57% -£5.79   Liverpool 2.00 1.72 -14% -£8.11
12/01/08 West Ham 1.22 1.85 51%  £1.22   Fulham 14.48 5.50 -62% -£8.51