The midweek Premier league news suggests this is going to be a really interesting weekend for the algorithm.  Harry stays at Pompey minus 4 first team players, Newcastle get Keegan and the Dubai Government is trying to buy Liverpool.  None of which the algorithm takes into account as the effect cannot be reliably quantified.  I cannot see the Liverpool news influencing play but certainly there is consideration needed for Portsmouth and Newcastle.  I will deal with that as I comment on each game and the betting tips below.  Odds and stakes are shown at the bottom of this post.

Birmingham v Chelsea.  The algorithm bets against both Chelsea and Birmingham, laying both teams.  Whilst a draw would be the best result a Chelsea win would also see a profit as the stake collected on laying Birmingham outweighs the loss on Chelsea.  The odds show the algorithm gives Birmingham little chance at 30.87.

Blackburn v Middlesbrough.  The algorithm’s odds are close to market odds here, especially Blackburn who are a marginal lay.  Middlesbrough is backed by the algorithm so we look for an away win in this game.  Whilst Blackburn have won their last 3 games they’ve not been against great opponents (Sunderland, Derby and Bolton). Middlesbrough, whilst not collecting as many points, have shown more promise, beating Portsmouth away and holding Liverpool at home.

Fulham v Arsenal.  Similar to the Birmingham v Chelsea game as the algorithm lays both teams with the outsider at home versus one of the big 4 away.  And in the same way we profit unless the home team wins - in which case we take a big hit! These upsets do and will continue to happen.  However, we have priced them in the model so the gains built up in the fund are really there as a reserve against these rarer events.  If we’ve priced them correctly we should still be up after the event.

Newcastle v Bolton.  With a new manager installed, a Newcastle favourite no less, I am not surprised the algorithm prices Newcastle 41% overvalued and therefore layed.  I think Newcastle will have the momentum behind them and win this one and should be priced a lot shorter by the algorithm.  However as I said in the introduction, the algorithm only takes account of news which is performance based and can be accurately quantified.  We hope for a shock away win!

Portsmouth v Derby.  I shall be wearing my Pompey shirt today as they entertain Premier league lowriders Derby.  They are the whipping boys and the algorithm knows it.  However, the loss of 4 first team players to the African Cup is not accounted for and therefore the algorithm’s odds probably are too short.  Regardless I still expect the home win to come in.

Reading v Man United.  Looking for a home win or draw here as the algorithm tips Reading and lays Man U for a higher stake.  Unlikely but perhaps this will be one of today’s surprises.

Tottenham v Sunderland.  Spurs have a score to settle as they lost to Sunderland on the first day of the season.  The algorithm and market odds are close and the algorithm tips an away win.  Although the algorithm backs Spurs the stake is not enough to cover the loss on Sunderland should they win.  This is another game which looks an unlikely profit however if just one of them comes in we should profit overall.

DATE HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
19/01/08 Birmingham 30.87 7.60 -75% -£5.73  Chelsea 1.92 1.62 -16% -£8.02
19/01/08 Blackburn 1.93 1.90 -1% -£6.02  Middlesbrough 4.15 5.20 25%  £2.41
19/01/08 Fulham 21.45 8.80 -59% -£6.09  Arsenal 1.95 1.48 -24% -£8.53
19/01/08 Newcastle 3.12 1.84 -41% -£6.40  Bolton 2.82 5.70 102%  £2.56
19/01/08 Portsmouth 1.11 1.45 31%  £1.30  Derby 47.91 9.20 -81% -£9.07
19/01/08 Reading 11.05 12.00 9%  £1.33  Man United 2.05 1.40 -32% -£9.29
19/01/08 Tottenham 1.44 1.47 2%  £1.36  Sunderland 7.15 9.00 26%  £2.72