A good week for the betting funds with 7 out of 9 winning bets.  The 2 losses were both away wins which can sometimes be costly.  However, as the new models are more accomodative of losing bets, both of these losing bets cost the funds less than 2%.  The Aggressive Fund is going to have to go some to catch up with it’s target after the big setback on the Man U loss v Man City.  Since changing the algorithm it won’t ever take such a big hit but it has also meant it is less likely to gain 20% in a week.  Even with 7 out of 9 winning bets it only increased just less than 11%.
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One winning and one losing bet yesterday.  Selecting Reading at home to Villa did seem a little optimistic.  Congratulations to Spurs winning the Carling Cup over Chelsea.  I can’t believe it had to go to extra-time (and there was a lot of it!) with Spurs playing so well and Chelsea so badly.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Man City v Everton.  Another very even contest which the market odds reflect.  Man City are not as good as their league position would suggest but after 13 games at home and just one loss Everton will surely have to play well to win.  Everton’s results are 6-3-4 away from home.  We’re banking on a home win, albeit a marginal one.
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All 6 matches yesterday returned a profit.  The Trading Fund earned the most, followed by the Aggressive and then Balance Fund.  This is the order you would expect when results go the way of the betting.  And conversely the reverse will likely be true when the bets don’t come in. 

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Blackburn v Bolton.  These two teams are rarely far apart in the league but Bolton are hovering over the drop zone after an unsettling season for them.  Blackburn’s last win came on 13 January against Bolton at the Reebok.  The market favours Blackburn but there is still some value left backing Rovers.
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Good to be back after the break last week for the F.A. Cup.  3 funds are now in operation; 2 based on the algorithm (one aggressive, one balanced) and 1 trading fund to pit my wits against the stats. 

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Birmingham v Arsenal. Two teams whose form is reflected in their league position.  Arsenal have great league form at the moment but interestingly their last dropped points in the Premier League was in a draw at Emirates v Birmingham in January.  The draw this time is too cheap and conversely the Blues and Arsenal too expensive.
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How useful is yield as a performance measure?

There are many variables to measure the success of a betting system.  These range from the simple ’strike rate’ showing the percentage of bets won to ‘yield’ which, by incorporating the potential loss on a bet, includes some measure of risk.  It goes without saying that the longer a system has been in place and the more bets it has covered the more reliable it is in terms of predicting future results.   However given the same number of bets, a system with a high yield is not necessarily better than a system with a lower yield.  Betting against Derby is a low yielding bet since the risk of loss is low.  However if such bets offer positive value (i.e. net profit over time) and we exclude them simply because they are low yield we are giving up potential profits.

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The Fund took a massive hit due to Man Utd’s shocking defeat at the hands of local rivals Man City.  I will post something on this later in the week as I incoporate the result and its significance into the algorithm model.

The betting Fund now has a loss to date of -7% since the Fund started on 29 September 07. The Fund is now behind in its target bid for £1million after 5 years - see progress here.
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A big loss on the Man City game as they turned over Man U at Old Trafford.  That result has given some very useful information to use in the algorithm model and on first look I am getting some more sensible odds out of the model now.  I will post the results later in the week.
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A good day yesterday as the Fund reached a new closing day high of £343.94.  There were no great surprises in yesterday’s results and it strikes me that there have been no real upsets so far this season.  Statistically this doesn’t make an upset more likely for the rest of the season but it will be a surprise in itself if there isn’t at least one all season.  It may be worth checking out whether there is any pattern to results late in the season after some teams having nothing left to play for. However, there will be too few games to analyse the results statistically.
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Hoping for better luck this week though as usual there are some scary fixtures.   The largest stake at risk and therefore potential loss is a Derby win at home to Tottenham.  This alone would cost the Fund over a third of it’s current value.  Today’s betting tips are shown and discussed below.  To view a history of all bets and the Fund results in detail go here.  To see a summary of the Fund’s progress against the target £1million go here.
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A loss this week of 7.42% as 3 teams which the algorithm layed won (Bolton, Wigan and Fulham).   Whilst a losing week is never pleasant it’s all within the expected performance of the algorithm over time.  However, this has not stopped me revisiting the algorithm model to add futher enhancements and try and squeeze out even better performance.  As long as I can avoid any large losses and keep building the Fund week to week toward the target £1million I know I should be pleased.
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