Today’s Premier League betting tips include a few bets that have me worried today.  The major standout is Sunderland visiting an out of form Liverpool.

Algorithm model and market odds plus calculated value and stakes are shown at the bottom of this post.  A negative stake represents a stake taken in a lay bet.  Matches are discussed below.

Birmingham v Derby.  Although Derby held Man City in their last game they are still short of registering a real threat.  The market odds reflect this which means a win for them would leave the fund down around 20%.  The algorithm lays Derby.

Blackburn v Everton.  We lay Everton in this game.  Personally I think their market odds should be shorter.  Blackburn should be good enough to hold them off but either team could win this one depending on how the ball bounces.

Liverpool v Sunderland.  This scares me as we lay Sunderland at odds of 15.  This would cost the fund 55% and could be one of the rare events that are so difficult to price.

Man City v Arsenal.  Algorithm lays both and would profit from a draw or Arsenal win due to stake sizes.

Portsmouth v Chelsea.  I thought Portsmouth were awful against Man U during the week and look like they are taking a mid-season break.  The algorithm lays Chelsea which isn’t ideal given Pompey’s form.

Reading v Bolton.  Another which could go either way on any day. We lay Bolton which could be costly.

Tottenham v Man Utd.  Again both teams are layed with a profit coming from a draw or an away win.

Wigan v West Ham.  This is probably the only tip I actually agree with today.  An in form West Ham fresh from a win v Liverpool should overturn Wigan.  I’m surprised Wigan’s odds are so short.

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Birmingham 1.18 1.70 44%  £-    Derby 24.74 6.40 -74%  £12.27
Blackburn 1.78 2.54 43%  £-    Everton 5.87 3.30 -44%  £7.50
Liverpool 1.10 1.35 23%  £-    Sunderland 81.32 15.00 -82%  £14.28
Man City 10.71 5.60 -48%  £8.68  Arsenal 2.61 1.83 -30%  £5.46
Portsmouth 5.19 5.60 8%  £-    Chelsea 2.96 1.82 -39%  £7.28
Reading 1.39 2.20 58%  £-    Bolton 10.09 4.00 -60%  £11.61
Tottenham 8.48 4.60 -46%  £9.07  Man United 2.69 1.92 -29%  £5.68
Wigan 9.12 2.88 -68%  £14.04  West Ham 2.66 2.76 4%  £-