Hoping for better luck this week though as usual there are some scary fixtures.   The largest stake at risk and therefore potential loss is a Derby win at home to Tottenham.  This alone would cost the Fund over a third of it’s current value.  Today’s betting tips are shown and discussed below.  To view a history of all bets and the Fund results in detail go here.  To see a summary of the Fund’s progress against the target £1million go here.

Aston Villa v Newcastle. Fulham’s late goal last week v Villa cost the Fund 20%.  Hopefully Villa losing from a winning position will have given them a kick in training to ensure they don’t make the same mistake this week.  Keegan still hasn’t managed a win yet so it will be a surprise if he manages it today.  The algorithm lays Newcastle and prices them way outside the market odds.

Bolton v Portsmouth.  Portsmouth have managed two more league victories away from home than Bolton have recorded at home.  These teams are well matched in this fixture at the Reebok stadium.  With both teams being bet against we look for a draw.  An away win would also see a profit.

Derby v Tottenham.  Derby have only won once at home this season, versus Newcastle in September.  Tottenham look like they are growing in confidence and should be too strong for Derby.  However, the algorithm looks for a draw or away win. 

Everton v Reading.  Reading beat Everton at home in August but that is all they have going in their favour as their form is poor.  And it looks even worse when compared to Everton who haven’t lost in 6 matches.  Strange then the algorithm lays Everton but at odds of 1.6 a losing bet will not cost the Earth.

Middlesbrough v Fulham.  Boro are unbeaten in six matches and amazingly Fulham haven’t won at Boro since 1949.  We’ll be hoping Fulham doesn’t lose us money two weeks running at they are layed.

Sunderland v Wigan.  Another home team is layed here.  Personally I see Sunderland being relegated along with Derby and Fulham.

West Ham v Birmingham.  It would be a surprise if Birmingham pull off a win here and against the run of recent form.  I tend to agree with the algorithm’s bet to lay the Blues.

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Aston Villa 1.11 1.85 67%  £-    Newcastle 73.97 5.20 -93%  £14.25
Bolton 5.64 2.70 -52%  £8.35  Portsmouth 3.29 2.96 -10%  £1.60
Derby 329.14 7.60 -98%  £16.12  Tottenham 2.68 1.55 -42%  £6.94
Everton 2.27 1.60 -29%  £5.18  Reading 5.04 7.40 47%  £-  
Middlesbrough 1.42 1.98 40%  £-    Fulham 10.76 4.70 -56%  £10.06
Sunderland 7.39 2.26 -69%  £12.74  Wigan 3.12 3.70 19%  £-  
West Ham 1.13 1.78 57%  £-    Birmingham 44.80 5.70 -87%  £16.56