A good day yesterday as the Fund reached a new closing day high of £343.94.  There were no great surprises in yesterday’s results and it strikes me that there have been no real upsets so far this season.  Statistically this doesn’t make an upset more likely for the rest of the season but it will be a surprise in itself if there isn’t at least one all season.  It may be worth checking out whether there is any pattern to results late in the season after some teams having nothing left to play for. However, there will be too few games to analyse the results statistically.

Today’s betting tips are shown and discussed below. To view a history of all bets and the Fund results in detail go here. To see a summary of the Fund’s progress against the target £1million go here.

Chelsea v Liverpool.  Chelsea have not lost at Stamford Bridge in an incredible 75 matches, while Liverpool sit 11 points behind Avram Grant’s side in the Barclays Premier League, despite scoring more goals (40 to 38) and conceding the same (17).  I don’t expect an upset but I do believe Liverpool know how to play big matches.  It will not be a comfortable game for Chelsea.  Personally this has the feel of a 1-1 draw and I am glad the algorithm bets against Chelsea at evens.

Man Utd v Man City.  City have only won twice on the road this season and their last win was on 2 January at Newcastle.  Man Utd are in good form and are one of only three teams left not to have lost at home.  A massive bet against Man City in this match as the algorithm gives them next to no chance of winning.  If Man U don’t score in the first half, in the words of Sir Alex, it’ll be squeaky bum time for me in the second half.

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Chelsea 3.37 2.00 -41%  £6.99  Liverpool 3.90 5.00 28%  £-  
Man United 1.07 1.32 23%  £-    Man City 772.42 16.00 -98%  £17.17