Good to be back after the break last week for the F.A. Cup.  3 funds are now in operation; 2 based on the algorithm (one aggressive, one balanced) and 1 trading fund to pit my wits against the stats. 

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Birmingham v Arsenal. Two teams whose form is reflected in their league position.  Arsenal have great league form at the moment but interestingly their last dropped points in the Premier League was in a draw at Emirates v Birmingham in January.  The draw this time is too cheap and conversely the Blues and Arsenal too expensive.

Fulham v West Ham. West Ham are the stronger team form wise and in their current league position of 10th v Fulham’s 19th.  Fulham have more to play for as they try and escape the dropzone.  However with 3 players back from injury West Ham should be too strong.  Fulham’s last win v Villa was more a one-off than a change in form.  Perhaps the market is fooled?  West Ham are cheap and Fulham expensive.

Liverpool v Middlesbrough. It’s Middlesbrough who are in the better form with the Reds lacking the Premier League results which their play deserves.  Both teams however look undervalued by the market odds.

Newcastle v Man United. The Magpies haven’t won under King Kev and Man U smacked them 6-0 at Old Trafford.  Those Red Devils also lost last time out at Man City so they will need to keep up the pressure on Arsenal this time out.  However once again the market has odds on the draw far too long and hence both Newcastle and Man U are overpriced.

Portsmouth v Sunderland. No away wins for Roy this season and Harry has only lost twice at home.  Pompey’s form has dipped over the last month or so but they regained composure recently holding Chelsea to a draw at home and a good win against Bolton away last week.  The market doesn’t give Pompey enough credit here whilst Sunderland’s odds are too short.

Wigan v Derby. If Derby are going to survive they had better get a result at Wigan.  Realistically they are all but playing in the Championship already.  Therefore are they really going to be much of a fight against Wigan who still have a lot to lose.  The market odds don’t seem to reflect this point enough in the odds - Derby overpriced, Wigan underpriced.

AGGRESSIVE FUND

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Birmingham 10.44 7.60 -27% -£1.27  Arsenal 2.11 1.63 -23% -£1.06
Fulham 3.86 2.80 -27% -£1.31  West Ham 2.59 2.90 12%  £-  
Liverpool 1.29 1.44 12%  £0.57  Middlesbrough 9.34 11.00 18%  £-  
Newcastle 33.87 8.60 -75% -£3.58  Man United 1.96 1.52 -23% -£1.09
Portsmouth 1.25 1.66 33%  £1.65  Sunderland 10.60 7.00 -34% -£1.71
Wigan 1.16 1.66 43%  £2.18  Derby 16.63 7.20 -57% -£2.85
 

BALANCED FUND 

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Birmingham 9.65 7.60 -21% -£6.37  Arsenal 2.13 1.63 -24% -£7.06
Fulham 3.53 2.80 -21% -£6.31  West Ham 2.68 2.90 8%  £-  
Liverpool 1.29 1.44 12%  £3.55  Middlesbrough 9.28 11.00 18%  £-  
Newcastle 15.83 8.60 -46% -£13.91  Man United 2.04 1.52 -25% -£7.73
Portsmouth 1.32 1.66 26%  £7.97  Sunderland 8.51 7.00 -18% -£5.52
Wigan 1.26 1.66 31%  £9.71  Derby 10.09 7.20 -29% -£8.89

TRADING FUND

HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
Birmingham 7.60 -£48.60  Arsenal 1.63 -£7.37
Fulham 2.80 -£48.49  West Ham 2.90 -£25.19
Liverpool 1.44  £11.45  Middlesbrough 11.00 -£11.45
Newcastle 8.60 -£50.75  Man United 1.52 -£11.17
Portsmouth 1.66  £28.31  Sunderland 7.00 -£41.30
Wigan 1.66  £31.35  Derby 7.20 -£47.68