A new month begins and we’re really now on the home straight for the Premier League. It should be one of the most exciting finishes for years as Arsenal, Man U and Chelsea have a real chance of taking the title. Sky Sports must be licking their lips at all that “Premiership action coming your way”!

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Arsenal v Aston Villa. It’s getting to the point in the season where every dropped point for the top 2 teams will seem like a real failure. Arsenal always in form at home face an impressive Villa. The head to head between these teams doesn’t give Villa much hope.

The algorithm funds are attracted by the odds on Arsenal though there is only 7% value. The Trading Fund additionally lays Villa.

Birmingham v Tottenham. Interesting on 2 counts. Birmingham had a great win at White Hart Lane 2-3 earlier in the season and Spurs presumably have a hangover after their Carling Cup win. Ramos might be a fitness freak but can he get his team sufficiently focused and in shape for this match now they already have a place in Europe?

The algorithm funds back a home win and lay Tottenham. Whilst I lay Birmingham as well in the Trading Fund hoping for a draw.

Derby v Sunderland. Two real dogs here so it won’t be pretty football. Can Derby chalk up their second win at home this season and Sunderland their first away win?

The algorithm funds diverge in opinion on the market odds. Both lay Derby but the Aggressive Fund favours (but doesn’t back) Sunderland whilst the Balanced Fund lays Sunderland as well as Derby. I lay both in the Trading Fund but would only lose if Derby win.

Fulham v Man United. Surprisingly Man U haven’t won in London this season so far. A good chance here as Fulham struggle to put two decent games together.

The algorithm seems to think there is a lot of value in backing Fulham which really surprises me. It would be a great result should the bets come in. I take a big risk as I bet against Fulham in the Trading Fund.

Man City v Wigan. 4 weeks ago you would have thought this was a non-contest for Man City. But recent weeks have seen the form reverse with Wigan picking up points and Man City really coming off the boil.

Having said that, there is value for the algorithm on the home win. Same goes for the Trading Fund.

Middlesbrough v Reading. Reading have been going backward in 2008. Middlesbrough have done well under Mr Soughtgate who I have to tip my hat to. A young manager who has improved the performance of a Premier League team. Well done.

The algorithm doesn’t fancy the odds on ‘boro though and lays the home team without backing Reading. I lay both looking for another draw.

Newcastle v Blackburn. Will Kevin win a match before the end of the season? It might not happen today as Blackburn are placed 9th and must still be hopeful for Europe.

There is a lot of value laying Newcastle as they look expensive at 2.62. Additionally I lay Rovers in the Trading Fund - yet another draw.

West Ham v Chelsea. How much do Chelsea have to prove after their Cup loss last week? This usually dictates their play. West Ham have done well this season as they would normally be worried about the drop.

The algorithm sees 50% value on West Ham backing the home side and laying Chelsea. Another really money spinner should it come in. I don’t see it so just lay Chelsea in the Trading Fund.

AGGRESSIVE FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Arsenal 1.57 1.67 7% £0.35 Aston Villa 5.53 7.20 30% £-
Birmingham 3.65 3.80 4% £0.21 Tottenham 2.65 2.24 -15% -£0.79
Derby 8.27 3.45 -58% -£3.01 Sunderland 2.17 2.38 9% £-
Fulham 6.86 11.50 68% £3.60 Man United 2.24 1.40 -37% -£1.99
Man City 1.70 2.06 21% £1.13 Wigan 4.82 4.80 0% -£0.02
Middlesbrough 2.43 2.00 -18% -£0.92 Reading 3.29 4.60 40% £-
Newcastle 6.00 2.62 -56% -£2.94 Blackburn 2.30 3.15 37% £-
West Ham 3.60 5.40 50% £2.69 Chelsea 2.66 1.92 -28% -£1.50

BALANCED FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Arsenal 1.56 1.67 7% £2.14 Aston Villa 5.54 7.20 30% £-
Birmingham 3.44 3.80 11% £3.28 Tottenham 2.72 2.24 -18% -£5.42
Derby 4.17 3.45 -17% -£5.34 Sunderland 2.53 2.38 -6% -£1.80
Fulham 6.67 11.50 72% £22.63 Man United 2.25 1.40 -38% -£11.81
Man City 1.72 2.06 20% £6.22 Wigan 4.74 4.80 1% £-
Middlesbrough 2.40 2.00 -17% -£5.11 Reading 3.33 4.60 38% £-
Newcastle 3.30 2.62 -20% -£6.33 Blackburn 2.77 3.15 14% £-
West Ham 3.71 5.40 46% £14.17 Chelsea 2.63 1.92 -27% -£8.41

TRADING FUND
HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
Arsenal 1.67 £8.30 Aston Villa 7.20 -£8.35
Birmingham 3.80 -£10.00 Tottenham 2.24 -£8.93
Derby 3.45 -£35.19 Sunderland 2.38 -£5.35
Fulham 11.50 -£52.71 Man United 1.40 £-
Man City 2.06 £17.20 Wigan 4.80 -£3.34
Middlesbrough 2.00 -£20.24 Reading 4.60 -£37.08
Newcastle 2.62 -£59.80 Blackburn 3.15 -£39.17
West Ham 5.40 £- Chelsea 1.92 -£17.96