Yesterday was a good day as all 3 match bets came in for all 3 funds. No surprises in the matches, though it could be argued Fulham did well to get their draw at Blackburn.

Another 3 games today due to the magic of the F.A. Cup. How great to see Portsmouth now installed as favourites to lift the Trophy at 2.3 on Betfair. They traded at odds of 200 at the opening of the market and £9 was matched. With Betfair you have to have the funds at risk in your account for the period of the bet; i.e. no margin allowed. For a £2 bet laying Pompey at 200 someone had to place aside £400 in their Betfair account. That’s a return of 0.5% (if Pompey lose) over as near as damn it a year. So even ignoring the risk of losing your £400 why someone thought a return of 0.5% on their money was good over a year is beyond me. Just goes to show how people don’t think about the price.

Congratulations as well to Barnsley who beat the millionaire boys club, Chelsea 1-0.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Sunderland v Everton. Sunderland are 5th from bottom but just 2 points over the dropzone. Everton are the form side who must have an eye on pipping their rivals Liverpool to the final Champion’s League spot. I am surprised at the market’s odds of 3.5 for Sunderland. They may hold on for a draw but a win I feel is a longer shot than 3.5.

The algorithm funds lay quite a large bet against Sunderland with no bet backing Everton though. The Trading Fund lays both.

Tottenham v West Ham. The Hammers were showing form but have since been slapped 4-0 by both Chelsea and Liverpool. They sit a respectable 10th in the league, one place and 8 points above Spurs. Tottenham should be back in the mood after their loss to Birmingham and mid-week in the U.E.F.A. Cup.

The market odds are very close to the algorithm on Spurs and there is a small lay bet. West Ham’s market odds are too long per the algorithm but they too are layed in the Trading Fund.

Wigan v Arsenal. Arsenal are 1 point above Man U in the league and will want to keep the pressure on with a win. Wigan have picked up a few points recently but it doesn’t signal much of an improvement in form. It should be Arsenal’s game but the big 4 have a bad habit recently of not performing at their best.

The algorithm has value in backing Wigan and laying Arsenal and so hoping for an upset. With Arsenal at 1.65 on the exchange it won’t be too expensive should it not come off. The Trading Fund goes for the more likely result with Wigan though still lays Arsenal.

AGGRESSIVE FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Sunderland 9.21 3.50 -62% -£3.32 Everton 2.14 2.36 10% £-
Tottenham 1.94 1.86 -4% -£0.23 West Ham 4.04 4.70 16% £-
Wigan 6.53 7.00 7% £0.39 Arsenal 2.26 1.65 -27% -£1.49

BALANCED FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Sunderland 6.34 3.50 -45% -£13.85 Everton 2.27 2.36 4% £-
Tottenham 2.02 1.86 -8% -£2.43 West Ham 3.88 4.70 21% £-
Wigan 6.55 7.00 7% £2.14 Arsenal 2.26 1.65 -27% -£8.45

TRADING FUND
HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
Sunderland 3.50 -£53.80 Everton 2.36 -£12.10
Tottenham 1.86 £7.14 West Ham 4.70 -£2.98
Wigan 7.00 -£16.26 Arsenal 1.65 -£14.33