More Premier League action. I do like these midweek games to break up the week even with European action. Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Aston Villa V Middlesbrough. Boro have come off the boil recently and Villa are holding firm. Villa have more to win in the League so expect them to be performing the better.

Market odds on Boro of 7.6 are too long and no bet made by the algorithm funds whereas both lay a small bet against Villa. The Trading fund lays Boro and backs Villa.

Chelsea v Derby County. Derby better remember their hard hats for this game. Chelsea don’t like to lose and certainly not to a lower league side a la Barnsley in the F.A. Cup. Derby have shown no form this year and Chelsea only have 2 Cups left to chase this year. The only question is what odds are you going to get on Chelsea. Market odds of 1.14 seem fair.

The algorithm calculates Chelsea as 1.04-1.06 and Derby as around 150-60 for the Aggressive and Balanced Funds respectively. A Derby win could hurt but not as much in the old days when it would have wiped out the funds. Short of the ref taking a large bung I can’t see it either.

Portsmouth v Birmingham. A difficult one this. Pompey on a high after the F.A. Cup victory over Man U. The Blues beat Spurs after they celebrated from beating Chelsea so they may fancy another upset here.

The algorithm funds see value in the home win as I do with the Trading Fund. The result of this match will mean a good few quid either way. Fingers crossed.

AGGRESSIVE FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Aston Villa 1.70 1.62 -5% -£0.27 Middlesbrough 4.79 7.60 59% £-
Chelsea 1.04 1.14 10% £0.54 Derby 150.24 36.00 -76% -£4.23
Portsmouth 1.57 2.00 27% £1.56 Birmingham 5.47 4.80 -12% -£0.70

BALANCED FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Aston Villa 1.70 1.62 -5% -£1.52 Middlesbrough 4.79 7.60 59% £-
Chelsea 1.06 1.14 8% £2.40 Derby 59.93 36.00 -40% -£12.57
Portsmouth 1.56 2.00 28% £9.00 Birmingham 5.57 4.80 -14% -£4.39

TRADING FUND
HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
Aston Villa 1.62 £0.34 Middlesbrough 7.60 -£28.66
Chelsea 1.14 £7.09 Derby 36.00 -£62.34
Portsmouth 2.00 £56.78 Birmingham 4.80 -£57.96