First a mention of the midweek games. 3 out of 3 winning bets for all 3 funds. Even though the funds went for a different result on the Villa v Boro game they all came out trumps as the draw suited everyone. That means all 3 funds are in profit. The Aggressive Fund is slowly catching up with it’s target; the Balanced Fund is just above target and the Trading Fund is way ahead of target.

I’ve actually adjusted the Trading Fund to take a less agressive approach so gains will not be so high but of course this means less chance of a blowout (a la Northern Rock, Bear Stearns, Carlyle Capital, et al!).

Interesing to note that on the West Ham v Blackburn game the algorithm’s odds are almost exactly the same as the market predicts home, away and draw.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Arsenal v Middlesbrough. Arsenal beaten only once this season, by Boro, really must win to stay ahead of Man U who visit Derby. Whilst Arsenal may not always be able to take the 3 points they are unlikely to be beaten at home at this stage of the season. The Gunners odds are very close to the algorithm but Boro’s market odds are long.

Small home bets for the algorithm funds whilst the Trading Fund will try and take advantage of what should be a home banker by also laying Boro.

Derby v Man U. What can you say here. At least Derby are playing at home. Fair play to the fans that are willing to watch their team beaten week in week out. It’s a non contest, just a question of value betting. I’m surprised the algorithm has the Man U odds so high and also the draw is strangely short at around evens. There’s obviously an opportunity to improve the model there.

Anyway, that all means we’re looking for a draw but will profit if Man U win. If Derby wins the Funds lose between 50-70%.

Liverpool v Reading. Can Reading score 3 wins on the run? Will Liverpool maintain their recent form? Reading won the reverse tie earlier in the season and must still be fearing the drop. The Reds must be looking over their shoulder and need to hold off their local rivals, Everton for 4th spot.

It’s a Liverpool home win for the Funds with the Trading Fund also laying Reading.

Portsmouth v Aston Villa. Two of the best managers in the league go head to head. Just compare the fortunes, both results wise and profit and loss of these teams against the likes of Newcastle. Ultimately, for the success of a team and club you need to look right to the top, not on the pitch or at management. Pompey can overtake Villa in to 6th place today. The excitement of this game cannot be higher for the two sets of fans.

The Funds are banking on Pompey, laying Villa.

Sunderland v Chelsea. Another match which doesn’t offer much deliberation on paper. Chelsea came back well after disappointing Cup performances. Sunderland are not being inspired by Roy Keane and it shows how ex-players with a big mouth do not automatically translate to talent in the dugout.

Both teams’ market odds are too short and hence both are layed. Whilst there is little chance of a draw, a Chelsea win would still see profit.

West Ham v Blackburn. A tight match here which could go any way with Blackburn sitting 6 points above the Hammers. Markets odds are almost bang on the algorithm odds so not much value in any bet.

The bets are a small lay of West Ham with the Trading Fund laying Blackburn aswell.

AGGRESSIVE FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Arsenal 1.33 1.34 1% £0.05 Middlesbrough 8.34 14.00 68% £-
Derby 365.24 28.00 -92% -£3.00 Man United 1.91 1.17 -39% -£2.26
Liverpool 1.26 1.28 2% £0.09 Reading 10.21 17.00 66% £-
Portsmouth 2.42 2.60 8% £0.46 Aston Villa 3.31 3.30 0% -£0.01
Sunderland 12.59 8.20 -35% -£2.11 Chelsea 2.07 1.55 -25% -£1.53
West Ham 2.95 2.66 -10% -£0.61 Blackburn 2.92 3.10 6% £-

BALANCED FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Arsenal 1.32 1.34 1% £0.44 Middlesbrough 8.49 14.00 65% £-
Derby 143.73 28.00 -81% -£25.96 Man United 1.92 1.17 -39% -£12.58
Liverpool 1.26 1.28 2% £0.53 Reading 10.24 17.00 66% £-
Portsmouth 2.32 2.60 12% £4.02 Aston Villa 3.41 3.30 -3% -£1.11
Sunderland 10.67 8.20 -23% -£7.71 Chelsea 2.11 1.55 -26% -£8.79
West Ham 2.75 2.66 -3% -£1.15 Blackburn 3.04 3.10 2% £-

TRADING FUND
DATE HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
15/03/08 Arsenal 1.34 £1.99 Middlesbrough 14.00 -£9.69
15/03/08 Derby 28.00 -£28.62 Man United 1.17 -£11.19
15/03/08 Liverpool 1.28 £2.38 Reading 17.00 -£5.98
15/03/08 Portsmouth 2.60 £0.09 Aston Villa 3.30 -£1.40
15/03/08 Sunderland 8.20 -£25.83 Chelsea 1.55 -£5.97
15/03/08 West Ham 2.66 -£7.10 Blackburn 3.10 -£4.46