Further gains were had for all funds from the 2 midweek games. It’s all going rather well right now. If the rest of the season goes as well the Funds will be well on their way to achieving the £1million targets. I’ve been dusting off the Bundesliga algorithm and hope to have this fully tested and ready to go for the start of the 08/09 season.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Aston Villa v Sunderland. Sunderland are 1 of only 3 teams not to have won an away game this season and are just above the drop zone. Villa have scored twice as many goals as Sunderland and are still hopeful of European football next season should Everton begin to falter.

There is value in backing both Villa and Sunderland. I think Sunderland’s odds are actually too short personally as I can’t see them winning. Villa is backed and the Trading Fund also lays Sunderland.

Blackburn v Wigan. Both these teams are floating in the middle of the table with only pride and money to play for. Wigan have been showing recent form but only relative to the teams below them.

The market and algorithm odds agree on Blackburn at evens. Wigan however is showing value in market odds of 4.80. Only the Trading Fund has a significant bet here laying both teams.

Bolton v Man City. Man City have a poor away record for where they are in the table. Bolton can pull out of the relegation zone above Sunderland if the Black Cats’ game goes as expected.

We’re laying Bolton and hope Sven can prove his value.

Everton v West Ham. Everton can match Liverpool on points if they win this and Liverpool don’t upset Man U. Everton tripped in their last game at Fulham but West Ham are hardly flying.

Again the market odds are well priced on the home team with some value in West Ham. There is actually a difference in the bet of the algorithm funds on Everton as the market odds split the 2 funds.

Middlesbrough v Derby. Whilst Boro have not won in 4, Derby look like being the worst Premier League team in history with a current 10 points. Derby haven’t won away this season.

There’s a fair bit of value in this game backing Boro and laying Derby.

Newcastle v Fulham. Newcastle probably have their best opportunity for a win under Keegan as Fulham are one of three teams not to have won away in the league this season.

The algorithm actually shows a lot of value on Fulham and against Newcastle reflecting recent results. We look for an upset and more misery for Kev.

Reading v Birmingham. A rare but recent win for Reading v Man City should give them belief they can hold off the Blues. Birmingham however have also showed recent form beating Spurs and holding off Newcastle. They are both still at risk of going down to the Championship next season.

Home win with a fair old bit of value as well.

Tottenham v Portsmouth. Only Ramos have something to prove as Tottenham fans can only look forward to next season. Pompey have an outside chance of Euro football via the league as well as the 3rd most away wins in the league.

AGGRESSIVE FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Aston Villa 1.50 1.62 8% £0.56 Sunderland 6.04 7.40 23% £-
Blackburn 2.00 2.00 0% £0.00 Wigan 3.91 4.80 23% £-
Bolton 2.95 2.50 -15% -£1.05 Man City 2.92 3.30 13% £-
Everton 1.69 1.70 1% £0.05 West Ham 4.85 6.40 32% £-
Middlesbrough 1.06 1.49 41% £2.83 Derby 59.79 8.80 -85% -£5.93
Newcastle 10.77 1.86 -83% -£5.88 Fulham 2.11 5.20 147% £-
Reading 1.58 2.16 36% £2.69 Birmingham 5.41 3.80 -30% -£2.20
Tottenham 1.93 1.80 -7% -£0.49 Portsmouth 4.07 5.20 28% £-

BALANCED FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Aston Villa 1.56 1.62 4% £1.38 Sunderland 5.55 7.40 33% £-
Blackburn 1.95 2.00 3% £0.98 Wigan 4.02 4.80 19% £-
Bolton 2.75 2.50 -9% -£3.34 Man City 3.04 3.30 9% £-
Everton 1.78 1.70 -5% -£1.71 West Ham 4.48 6.40 43% £-
Middlesbrough 1.11 1.49 34% £12.39 Derby 24.37 8.80 -64% -£23.34
Newcastle 4.27 1.86 -56% -£20.81 Fulham 2.51 5.20 107% £-
Reading 1.64 2.16 31% £11.75 Birmingham 5.06 3.80 -25% -£9.34
Tottenham 2.01 1.80 -10% -£3.84 Portsmouth 3.90 5.20 33% £-

TRADING FUND
HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
Aston Villa 1.62 £12.70 Sunderland 7.40 -£18.29
Blackburn 2.00 -£0.06 Wigan 4.80 -£7.03
Bolton 2.50 -£6.12 Man City 3.30 -£5.01
Everton 1.70 £3.05 West Ham 6.40 -£4.11
Middlesbrough 1.49 £13.60 Derby 8.80 -£29.66
Newcastle 1.86 -£24.98 Fulham 5.20 -£44.63
Reading 2.16 £34.02 Birmingham 3.80 -£30.67
Tottenham 1.80 £1.63 Portsmouth 5.20 -£3.14