It’s the first outing of the new algorithm today since the changes made during the week. It’s not as risk averse as I originally thought but the Balanced Fund is still the most risk averse of the 3 funds. As I continue to feed in historic prices from Betfair I will hopefully improve it’s reliability.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Arsenal v Liverpool. Quite a gap between these 2 teams in the league with Arsenal above Liverpool by 8 points. The midweek Champions League tie between these teams finished 1-1 with advantage to Liverpool. I cannot understand the market odds of 5.3 on Liverpool which is why i’m backing them in the Trading Fund.

Aston Villa v Bolton. Villa are in poor form having won only 1 of their last 6 matches. Fortunately for them Bolton haven’t won any of their last 6 having lost 5 of them. Villa’s odds of 1.85 on the betting exchanges however are too short so we lay Villa here.

Blackburn v Tottenham. Blackburn haven’t lost any of their last 6 games at home and Tottenham have only won 1 of their last 6 away games. Spurs have always been such an inconsistent side and they appear to be going through another bad spell. The new Balanced Fund algorithm backs Blackburn and lays Spurs.

Fulham v Sunderland. Sunderland have a couple of recent wins under their belt and are almost safe from the drop. Fulham on the other hand look like they may suffer the drop unless they can begin a run of decent results starting today. Fulham have more at risk here and should be fighting that little bit harder. It’s a backing for the home team.

Man City v Chelsea. City are in a run of poor form with Chelsea on a high. City have little to play for and Chelsea no doubt still think they can win the league. Away win with the Trading Fund backing Chelsea.

Newcastle v Reading. The Magpies have turned the corner winning their last 2 games. Surprisingly Reading have better form over their last 6 games with 10 points from 18. Reading could theoretically still be relegated should they lose form. Market odds of 1.83 for Newcastle is a poor price so we lay.

Wigan v Birmingham. These 2 teams have a lot to fight for as they sit just above the relegation zone. They are just as close on recent form as well. Home advantage is a big play in this game. Quite a big game for the Balanced Fund. Home win.

AGGRESSIVE FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Arsenal 4.64 1.92 -59% -£3.75 Liverpool 2.29 5.30 132% £-
Aston Villa 3.23 1.85 -43% -£2.81 Bolton 3.12 5.40 73% £-
Blackburn 4.25 2.50 -41% -£2.77 Tottenham 2.44 3.20 31% £-
Fulham 3.10 2.36 -24% -£1.63 Sunderland 3.26 3.45 6% £-
Man City 9.67 5.70 -41% -£2.85 Chelsea 1.51 1.76 16% £-
Newcastle 6.89 1.83 -73% -£5.19 Reading 1.77 5.50 210% £-
Wigan 2.43 2.24 -8% -£0.56 Birmingham 4.30 3.95 -8% -£0.59

BALANCED FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Arsenal 2.68 1.92 -28% -£10.50 Liverpool 3.29 5.30 61% £-
Aston Villa 2.19 1.85 -15% -£5.76 Bolton 4.40 5.40 23% £-
Blackburn 2.46 2.50 2% £0.64 Tottenham 3.69 3.20 -13% -£4.98
Fulham 2.01 2.36 17% £6.47 Sunderland 5.06 3.45 -32% -£11.97
Man City 4.69 5.70 22% £8.13 Chelsea 1.94 1.76 -9% -£3.49
Newcastle 2.71 1.83 -33% -£12.25 Reading 3.24 5.50 70% £-
Wigan 1.76 2.24 27% £10.44 Birmingham 6.60 3.95 -40% -£15.27

TRADING FUND
HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
Arsenal 1.92 -£47.72 Liverpool 5.30 £50.00
Aston Villa 1.85 -£31.19 Bolton 5.40 -£51.90
Blackburn 2.50 -£40.12 Tottenham 3.20 -£38.60
Fulham 2.36 -£32.79 Sunderland 3.45 -£25.66
Man City 5.70 -£49.81 Chelsea 1.76 £50.00
Newcastle 1.83 -£76.86 Reading 5.50 £-
Wigan 2.24 £90.72 Birmingham 3.95 £-