No large discrepancies between the betting exchange odds and the algorithm’s odds today. The biggest risk is a lay bet of Middlesbrough at Spurs. A risk not only due to the exchange odds of 6 but also because Spurs can be so indifferent at times. Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Birmingham v Everton. Birmingham are just above the relegation zone and surprisingly haven’t lost any of their last 5 home games. Everton are hanging on to a UEFA Cup place and have lost their last 2 away. On the basis of the odds on offer we go for a home win.

Bolton v West Ham. Bolton are in the relegation zone and are now 4 points below Birmingam just above them. They will likely need a win today if they are going to survive but haven’t won any of their last 6 at home. West Ham are floating mid-table but have only 4 points from the last 18. We look for another home win.

Derby v Aston Villa. Derby are on 11 points versus Villa’s 52. Derby have won at home just once this season - their only win of the season. Villa’s form away isn’t great recently as the season looks like it will end without a place in Europe which must surely have been O’Neill wish. Lay Derby.

Portsmouth v Newcastle. Pompey, now just 4 points behind Everton in 5th, have won 5 of their last 6 home games. That’s second only to Liverpool who’ve won all 6. Newcastle have found their feet with 10 points from the last 18 versus 12 points for Pompey. Home win.

Reading v Fulham. Only 3 places separate these sides with Reading in 16th and Fulham 19th. Reading are in the top half of the table based on points from the last 6 games. Fulham, who’ve only taken 3 points from the last 18 available away must win today to avoid relegation. Lay Reading according to the algorithm but in the Trading Fund I look for the home win.

Sunderland v Man City. These 2 teams are neither troubled by relegation of looking for European places now. It’s Sunderland who have the better recent form winning their last 3 games against Man City who’ve only managed 1 win from their last 6 games. Lay Sunderland.

Tottenham v Middlesbrough. Spurs are 5 points and 3 places above Boro. Both have similar recent form though Spurs’ form at home is much better than Boro’s recent away form as they haven’t won any of their last 6 on the road. Home win.

AGGRESSIVE FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Birmingham 3.24 3.25 0% £0.01 Everton 1.73 2.54 47% £-
Bolton 1.90 2.10 10% £0.76 West Ham 2.88 3.95 37% £-
Derby 171.19 6.40 -96% -£6.94 Aston Villa 1.01 1.70 68% £-
Portsmouth 1.46 2.16 48% £3.64 Newcastle 4.84 3.90 -19% -£1.46
Reading 2.14 1.95 -9% -£0.67 Fulham 2.47 4.50 82% £-
Sunderland 2.62 2.16 -18% -£1.32 Man City 2.02 4.00 98% £-
Tottenham 1.60 1.70 6% £0.45 Middlesbrough 3.87 6.00 55% £-

BALANCED FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Birmingham 2.81 3.25 16% £5.78 Everton 2.64 2.54 -4% -£1.37
Bolton 1.93 2.10 9% £3.17 West Ham 4.76 3.95 -17% -£6.31
Derby 9.30 6.40 -31% -£11.59 Aston Villa 1.30 1.70 31% £-
Portsmouth 1.75 2.16 23% £8.73 Newcastle 6.00 3.90 -35% -£13.13
Reading 2.27 1.95 -14% -£5.36 Fulham 3.53 4.50 27% £-
Sunderland 2.56 2.16 -16% -£5.95 Man City 2.96 4.00 35% £-
Tottenham 1.54 1.70 10% £3.88 Middlesbrough 8.75 6.00 -31% -£11.92

TRADING FUND
HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
Birmingham 3.25 -£80.20 Everton 2.54 £-
Bolton 2.10 £19.39 West Ham 3.95 -£18.81
Derby 6.40 -£93.56 Aston Villa 1.70 -£66.03
Portsmouth 2.16 £71.51 Newcastle 3.90 -£20.00
Reading 1.95 £38.66 Fulham 4.50 -£14.79
Sunderland 2.16 -£58.08 Man City 4.00 £-
Tottenham 1.70 £20.42 Middlesbrough 6.00 -£22.42