It’s getting close to the end of the season now and this often means peculiar results.  Whilst some teams will be trying 110% to avoid relegation or gain a European place, others will be winding down for the summer break.  This can give the lower teams an opportunity to earn points where they never would have had a chance earlier in the season.  It can also be costly if you get on the wrong side of a lay bet.  Lowering stakes on some of the lower yielding bets may be rewarded.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Arsenal v Reading.  Reading have really gone off the boil for me and certainly lack any away form.  Arsenal are safe in terms of European football next season but will always fight hard being one of the top 4.  Their recent form however is even worse than Reading’s having taken only 6 points from a possible 18 in the last 6 games. 

I did have this one pencilled in for a small lay of Reading but the odds have moved out since.  The Arsenal odds in the exchanges are almost bang on the algorithm’s.

Blackburn v Man United.  This could be a nice payday if Blackburn upset the odds and win this match.  Rovers haven’t lost any of their last 6 at home, nor have Man U away.  Will Man U get nervous close to the finish line?  They do have their off days; I hope this is one of them.

Fulham v Liverpool.  Fulham have beaten Villa and Everton at home in their last 2 wins at home.  Liverpool have lost to Man U and West Ham in their last 2 losing mathces away.  It’s the last chance saloon for Fulham as they make another attempt to escape the bottom 3.  Just a shame they meet Liverpool who are not assured of 4th place just yet.  I’m laying Fulham as the exchange odds of 3.55 appear too low.

Middlesbrough v Bolton.  Bolton have lost their last 4 away games and scored just 1 goal as they lie in 18th place.  Boro’ have just 1 loss at home in their last 6.  This is however a match where the lesser side will be fighting and the favourite having little to play for.  Personally, exchange odds of 4.1 don’t seem high for Bolton.

West Ham v Derby.  Surprising to me, West Ham are in 19th place in the form guide for the last 6 games.  Their 2 losses at home however were at the courtesy of Chelsea and Portsmouth. Only Derby are below them with 1 point from a possible 18.  Home win.

Wigan v Tottenham.  Who knows what Spurs will do week to week.  Wigan are more predictable and are enjoying a good spell.  They’ve dropped just 5 points from 18 in their last 6 games; 2 to Arsenal and 3 to Everton.  The algorithm lays Wigan which personally I disagree with. However their exchange odds are comfortingly short at 2.64.

AGGRESSIVE FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Arsenal 1.27 1.35 7%  £0.52  Reading 8.12 13.50 66%  £-  
Blackburn 6.57 6.60 1%  £0.04  Man United 1.31 1.64 26%  £-  
Fulham 5.73 3.55 -38% -£2.94  Liverpool 1.36 2.34 72%  £-  
Middlesbrough 1.96 2.16 10%  £0.78  Bolton 2.87 4.10 43%  £-  
West Ham 1.02 1.46 43%  £3.35  Derby 86.79 9.00 -90% -£7.01
Wigan 3.10 2.64 -15% -£1.18  Tottenham 1.84 2.96 61%  £-  

BALANCED FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Arsenal 1.40 1.35 -3% -£1.35  Reading 12.64 13.50 7%  £-  
Blackburn 5.51 6.60 20%  £7.78  Man United 1.61 1.64 2%  £-  
Fulham 4.55 3.55 -22% -£8.61  Liverpool 1.79 2.34 30%  £-  
Middlesbrough 2.48 2.16 -13% -£5.03  Bolton 3.23 4.10 27%  £-  
West Ham 1.43 1.46 2%  £0.90  Derby 11.64 9.00 -23% -£8.96
Wigan 3.28 2.64 -19% -£7.73  Tottenham 2.32 2.96 27%  £-  

TRADING FUND
HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
Arsenal 1.35  £15.32  Reading 13.50 -£4.93
Blackburn 6.60 -£44.81  Man United 1.64  £-  
Fulham 3.55 -£80.90  Liverpool 2.34  £-  
Middlesbrough 2.16  £9.18  Bolton 4.10 -£48.35
West Ham 1.46  £47.81  Derby 9.00 -£101.48
Wigan 2.64 -£30.58  Tottenham 2.96 -£87.53