Quite a lot to think about in today’s games. Aside from the title race potentially being won today there are plenty of matches which have upset written all over them. Theoretically there are 7 teams fighting for the last 2 Premiership places still up for grabs for season 08/09. Each stands a fair chance of winning their games today. Birmingham are fortunate to have a home tie as they play Liverpool. I’m taking account of these risks in my Trading Fund tips.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Birmingham v Liverpool. You cannot ignore the fact that Birmingham need this more than Liverpool. On paper the question would normally be how many can Liverpool score. In the Trading Fund i’ve reduced my lay bet on the Blues and layed the Reds.

Chelsea v Man United. It’s the big one. History says Man U will not win today but they only need one point. That could draw out Chelsea in the second half and lead to the end of their 4 year unbeaten run at home. A 0-2 win for Man U is at odds of 20 on Betfair. There’s little value in the match odds however.

Man City v Fulham. Fulham can be relegated today so will be fighting hard all the way to the end. City could win this very easily on recent form but will need to do plenty of running to keep up with Fulham. I’ve kept a small lay of Fulham in the Trading Fund.

Sunderland v Middlesbrough. These two are almost safe and a draw would be convenient. Consequently both are layed in the Trading Fund.

Tottenham v Bolton. Bolton have the best chance today of beating the odds. Spurs have had a pretty poor season apart from the League Cup. Surprisingly there is value in backing Spurs and Bolton are at worringly wide odds in the Balanced Fund. Perhaps the market sees an upset as a real risk.

West Ham v Newcastle. The Magpies are flying high with 14 from the last 18 available points, what a contrast to the rest of the season. But can it last? They’ve only won 1 of their last 6 away games.

Wigan v Reading. Reading are another team with a realistic chance of turning over better opposition as they battle for survival. Unfortunately for them Wigan are playing well not having lost any of their last 6 at home.

AGGRESSIVE FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Birmingham 12.86 2.90 -77% -£6.58 Liverpool 1.14 2.84 149% £-
Chelsea 2.30 2.54 10% £0.91 Man United 2.37 3.35 41% £-
Man City 2.08 1.96 -6% -£0.50 Fulham 2.67 4.60 72% £-
Sunderland 2.21 2.54 15% £1.33 Middlesbrough 2.48 3.50 41% £-
Tottenham 1.55 1.85 20% £1.71 Bolton 4.38 4.80 10% £-
West Ham 1.88 2.72 44% £3.83 Newcastle 3.05 2.88 -6% -£0.48
Wigan 1.56 2.12 36% £3.07 Reading 4.32 4.10 -5% -£0.43

BALANCED FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Birmingham 9.46 2.90 -69% -£28.63 Liverpool 1.31 2.84 117% £-
Chelsea 2.29 2.54 11% £4.68 Man United 3.64 3.35 -8% -£3.33
Man City 2.10 1.96 -7% -£2.79 Fulham 4.21 4.60 9% £-
Sunderland 1.93 2.54 31% £13.24 Middlesbrough 4.94 3.50 -29% -£12.28
Tottenham 1.63 1.85 14% £5.78 Bolton 7.53 4.80 -36% -£15.28
West Ham 2.21 2.72 23% £9.79 Newcastle 3.85 2.88 -25% -£10.64
Wigan 1.70 2.12 24% £10.35 Reading 6.63 4.10 -38% -£16.19

TRADING FUND
HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
Birmingham 2.90 -£50.00 Liverpool 2.84 -£50.00
Chelsea 2.54 £8.34 Man United 3.35 -£59.10
Man City 1.96 £31.96 Fulham 4.60 -£11.50
Sunderland 2.54 -£20.85 Middlesbrough 3.50 -£50.00
Tottenham 1.85 £36.09 Bolton 4.80 -£7.98
West Ham 2.72 £84.12 Newcastle 2.88 -£31.77
Wigan 2.12 £73.60 Reading 4.10 -£30.00