Well, that’s it; the end of the season. A very profitable one apart from this final week. Whilst there was no financial gain for the Balanced Fund in this last week there was a lot to learn from the divergence in the market’s and model’s odds on the relegation and title games.

Quite simply the Balanced Fund model took no account of the impact of the final week relegation and title battle. Hence it was drawn into betting against Birmingham, Fulham and Reading who fought against relegation. The same went for Everton and Villa who were fighting for the last European place. It also backed Wigan and Bolton against Man U and Chelsea as they fought for the title. In all, 7 matches were influenced by the relegation/title race which the market took account of in it’s odds.  The Balanced Fund lost on 5 of these 7 bets. Continued

This final week has thrown up some interesting odds on the betting exchanges as teams battle it out for the lucrative prizes at both ends of the table.

The odds which stand-out the most for me are not any one team’s odds in isolation but the comparitive odds of the teams playing the potential title winners, Man Utd and Chelsea. Wigan are at odds of 15 (too high) at home to Man U and Bolton at 24 (too low) away at Chelsea. Bolton must not win if Chelsea are to lift the title. Chelsea have not lost at home since I was knee-high. Man U could lose and still take the title. Bolton are in poor form and Wigan playing well.

If Wigan only have a 7% chance of winning at home surely Bolton have less than a 4% chance away? Or the converse is true. Either way the gap should be wider. Continued

All funds gained this week with the largest win coming from backing Fulham against Birmingham. The best ROI came from laying Villa at home to Wigan. The Balanced Fund only managed 5 winners from 10 but still gained 4.7%. The Trading and Aggressive Funds gained over 14% and 12% respectively with 8 winning bets from 10 matches.

Although these are good gains in one week they come at a price. The Trading Fund risked more than the value of the Fund in the 10 matches when aggregated compared to an equivalent figure of below 30% for the Balanced Fund. Continued

Both Newcatle and Chelsea are on a high. Whilst Newcastle are only playing for position they will want to make the most of their current form. I can see an upset if Chelsea don’t get the first goal. I just hope Drogba doesn’t fall over as much. After all he is very delicate, poor fella. Continued

Wins yesterday across all funds including a good win on the Fulham game. The Balanced Fund managed a gain of 3.2% on stakes of less than 10% of the Fund; a return on investment of over 30% which pushed the current yield up to 13.2%. This came mostly on the back of the Fulham win as the strike rate actually fell from 72.3% to 70.4%. It’s good to see that when you only pick 3 winners from 7 that profits still come from somewhere. Consistent returns with a very low risk of large losses in any week is the aim. Continued

So here we are with just 2 games left now in the season and still so much to play for. The greatest value in today’s odds are away bets on Sunderland, Spurs, Pompey and Wigan which all offer greater than 50% value. However, due to a lack of consistency in my model’s ability to profit on away wins I don’t back any of them but rather lay the home teams.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below. Continued