So here we are with just 2 games left now in the season and still so much to play for. The greatest value in today’s odds are away bets on Sunderland, Spurs, Pompey and Wigan which all offer greater than 50% value. However, due to a lack of consistency in my model’s ability to profit on away wins I don’t back any of them but rather lay the home teams.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below.

Aston Villa v Wigan. Villa with a great home record and a chance at the 5th spot versus Wigan with a poor away record and little to play for. However, the betting exchanges have Villa at just 1.55 so we’re laying them. I also lay Wigan in the Trading Fund and hope for a draw.

Blackburn v Derby. A good win for Blackburn last week against Pompey who may be reserving themselves for the F.A. Cup final. There’s little you can say about Derby’s record but at odds of 15 it’s too expensive to bet against for the Balanced Fund. The other Funds take more risk and lay Derby.

Bolton v Sunderland. Both teams are safe and there’s little excitement with this game. Why Sunderland are priced at 6 on the exchanges is beyond me as they have the 3rd best form in the league based on the last 6 games played. Hoping for an away win.

Fulham v Birmingham. The big game of the day as both sides can be relegated today. Fulham have the best recent form and home advantage. Home win.

Man United v West Ham. I know Man U need the win as much as Chelsea but West Ham’s odds are beyond me. It’s the Hammers who did the double over Man U and Arsenal last season and have a good record against teams who on paper are better than them. I don’t think we’ll get an upset but the price is too high on West Ham.

Middlesbrough v Portsmouth. Pompey’s recent record hasn’t been great of late but Boro’s is worse. Granted Pompey only realistically have an eye on the Cup but Boro are going backwards and I’m betting against them.

Reading v Tottenham. My odds on this are very different from the exchanges. And it’s Reading who are overvalued, Spurs undervalued. Reading have the worst recent form bar Derby and recently got beat 0-2 at home to Fulham. Away win.

AGGRESSIVE FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Aston Villa 1.85 1.55 -16% -£1.42 Wigan 3.15 8.00 154% £-
Blackburn 1.04 1.29 24% £2.18 Derby 51.59 15.00 -71% -£6.35
Bolton 2.39 1.72 -28% -£2.57 Sunderland 2.28 6.00 163% £-
Fulham 1.50 2.20 46% £4.31 Birmingham 4.69 3.80 -19% -£1.76
Man United 1.19 1.19 0% £0.01 West Ham 11.05 21.00 90% £-
Middlesbrough 2.10 1.97 -6% -£0.56 Portsmouth 2.64 4.70 78% £-
Reading 4.90 2.56 -48% -£4.38 Tottenham 1.44 3.15 119% £-

BALANCED FUND
HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake
Aston Villa 1.89 1.55 -18% -£7.89 Wigan 5.19 8.00 54% £-
Blackburn 1.38 1.29 -6% -£2.83 Derby 13.42 15.00 12% £-
Bolton 2.51 1.72 -31% -£13.91 Sunderland 3.17 6.00 89% £-
Fulham 1.56 2.20 41% £18.14 Birmingham 8.46 3.80 -55% -£24.62
Man United 1.28 1.19 -7% -£3.23 West Ham 18.89 21.00 11% £-
Middlesbrough 2.70 1.97 -27% -£12.18 Portsmouth 2.87 4.70 64% £-
Reading 4.19 2.56 -39% -£17.66 Tottenham 1.90 3.15 66% £-

TRADING FUND
HOME Ex Odds Stake AWAY Ex Odds Stake
Aston Villa 1.55 -£14.80 Wigan 8.00 -£30.00
Blackburn 1.29 £30.10 Derby 15.00 -£50.00
Bolton 1.72 -£11.98 Sunderland 6.00 -£20.00
Fulham 2.20 £142.60 Birmingham 3.80 -£50.00
Man United 1.19 £9.51 West Ham 21.00 -£6.78
Middlesbrough 1.97 -£0.59 Portsmouth 4.70 -£76.99
Reading 2.56 -£86.57 Tottenham 3.15 -£50.00