Well, that’s it; the end of the season. A very profitable one apart from this final week. Whilst there was no financial gain for the Balanced Fund in this last week there was a lot to learn from the divergence in the market’s and model’s odds on the relegation and title games.

Quite simply the Balanced Fund model took no account of the impact of the final week relegation and title battle. Hence it was drawn into betting against Birmingham, Fulham and Reading who fought against relegation. The same went for Everton and Villa who were fighting for the last European place. It also backed Wigan and Bolton against Man U and Chelsea as they fought for the title. In all, 7 matches were influenced by the relegation/title race which the market took account of in it’s odds.  The Balanced Fund lost on 5 of these 7 bets.

The market probably got it right as well as all 3 of the relegation teams won. I haven’t looked, but i’d be surprised if there was another week in the season when all 3 of Birmingham, Fulham and Reading won on the same day. Everton also won whilst Villa and Chelsea drew. The biggest loss however came on backing Wigan at home to Man U for the reason stated above.

So, whilst in the previous couple of weeks there was little sign of the end of season effect it certainly hit home in this final week. Ouch, the Balanced Fund lost 8.65%. Whilst I also missed this in my Trading Fund it did manage a 7.2% gain here but mostly from laying both Villa and West Ham as they drew.

Weekly movement in Aggressive Fund: -5.38%

Days ahead/(behind) target (began 29/9/07): -100 days

Weekly movement in Balanced Fund:-8.65%

Days ahead/(behind) target (began 23/2/08): +10 days

Weekly movement in Trading Fund: +7.29%

Days ahead/(behind) target (began 23/2/08): +203 days