With losses showing for all 3 Funds for October i’m already looking forward to November’s games.  But before then I guess I should try and reflect on the month gone.  It’s not great looking back on a losing month but it may be useful if it can highlight any obvious errors or show it was just part of the randomness of results.

Firstly, a word on Harry’s move to Spurs.  I’ve always believed Harry Redknapp was ‘pound for pound’ the best manager in the Premier League.  Only Martin O’Neill comes close.  If you’re a Chairman in need of silverware and don’t speak Russian then Harry’s your man.  Expect to see some new faces at White Hart Lane come January and forget 40 yard cross-field balls or Cinderella turns.  Harry will build a team of strong, technically gifted players who earn their money and play for the team, not for the glory.  Good luck Harry and good luck to Tony Adams back at Fratton Park.

The Premier Fund lost 11% on the month but it was down more until the last set of games.  It wasn’t any one game which hit the Fund but rather 3 rounds of losing games.  Only the last set of games was profitable.  The largest loss was acutally in the last set of games as Arsenal drew with Spurs 4-4 when the Fund backed a home win.

The strike rate over the period fell from 65% down to just below 62%.  It just seems that the results didn’t go the Fund’s way.  It’s worth noting the last figure for September was an all-time high meaning a new high at the end of the following month would always be difficult.

As for whether the performance to date indicates a statistically significant variance from historic backtested results?  Well, of course it’s too early to even draw comparisons.  We’ve had just 7 months of performance with 5 positive and 2 negative.  A nice gain to date of 73% set against a loss of 11% in October.  An 11% loss which compares very favourably with the roughly 15% loss the FTSE100 is about to deliver.  Who said sports gambling was a risky business!

The Championship Fund took a hiding in October.  This is in line with expectations as historic results have shown it’s profitable to back outsiders in this league.  It worked in September but we didn’t see it happening enough in October - though there were so many games were a big gain was just a few minutes away.

The Trading Fund, a combination of the 2 above mentioned Funds, took a hit also, unsurprisingly.  It was however down less than the two combined as I was able to make a few minor tweaks.  One of these was not backing Arsenal v Spurs as the Premier Fund indicated.  Whilst this worked there were other changes which didn’t.  For example, on the same day I decided Middlesbrough would not have the making of Man City.  I was wrong and lost out on an 8% gain.

So, here’s looking forward to November and back to profits. I’m going to try and use the Trading Fund amendments I make just reflect the major changes which hit teams; e.g. change in manager, saving first team players for a Cup game, etc.  Here’s hoping.