This weekend’s results have driven the Championship Fund to a new high of 142.70, a gain of 42.7% since the start of the season. The backtesting had promised great things for this Fund with gains in excess of those of the Premier League Fund. However, the Fund had spent a lot of the season under water. The model has a tendency to back the underdog and with recent wins for Ipswich at QPR, Barnsley at Swansea and more notably Doncaster at Sheffield United the Fund has very quickly risen to meet those early expectations.

Whilst acknowledging the situation could once again reverse, I am heartened by the patience and confidence shown in the backtesting undertaken before allowing this fund to go live. The lesson learned is to backtest over a long enough period to have confidence that the results are not significantly influenced by random events; chance tending to have a lesser effect over time. Further, it is important to give sufficient time in forward testing to again remove the influence of chance. Far too many times I have read betting blogs which dismiss trading ideas or strategies from a bad run of results without any analysis of whether the results could be put down to chance. Flipping from one strategy to another is just going to result in commission taking your money in the long run.

After today’s matches the gains in each of the funds are: Championship +42.7%, Premier League +56.5%, Trading Fund +251.2%.