Not a great weekend of games for the fund to say the least, losing some 22%.  Whilst I knew that one week would see a big fall I did not expect it to be due to a poor strike rate.  I had thought it would more likely come from laying a long shot.  I would hate to see a week with a low strike rate and a long shot coming in against me.

This weekend there were only 3 winning bets and 5 losing bets with 2 draws.  The strike rate of winning match bets moved down to 67% and the yield (return on money at risk) fell to 6.1%.  These figures are around the long run expected values so the fund has really just fallen from unsustainable highs back to its long term trend.

I saw the Liverpool v Man U match and it was my impression that Liverpool had most of the play.  Whilst the Man U goal was a well worked set piece they threatened little during the game.  This apparent divergence between the result and game performance does level out over the season.  That is, sometimes the luck (or ‘white noise’) goes for you and sometimes against.  And as long as it does cancel itself out over time it should not stop the fund growing in value.  The rather nasty looking stats for this week are below:

PERFORMANCE OF ALGORITHM BETTING PREMIER LEAGUE FUNDS:

Weekly movement in fund: Alpha -2.2%, Beta -21.9%

Winning weeks (number of weeks showing gains/ total number of weeks since fund started): Alpha 13/17, Beta 9/10

% increase since the fund started: Alpha +35.0%, Beta +129.8%

Risk (max weekly gain/max weekly loss, insufficient data for standard deviations):

Alpha +6.9%/-2.9%, Beta +49.6%/-21.9%