After the poor showing in the last week of August I was pleased to see September get off to a great start.  The Premier Fund recorded a gain of 16.5%, the Championship fund contributed a gain of just over 6% and the Trading Fund made hay with a gain of just under 24%.

A large part of the gains from last weekend came from Liverpool burying Man Utd at home.  Depsite what Andy Gray might have been looking at I thought Liverpool were the better team throughout the whole match.  They may have fallen to an early goal but apart from that lapse which came in the first few minutes Liverpool were very controlled.  I think the Reds are a great bet for the title if you want to see any decent return on your money. Continued

It’s been 2 weeks since the last set of games and August was not a great month performance wise.  The tips for the Premier League only just scraped a positive return of 2.84%.  The Championship and Trading Fund did even worse with -23% and -31% respectively.  It wasn’t great timing to double the stakes in the Trading Fund and only goes to confirm the idiocy of chasing gains.

2 weeks in the Premier League has once again seen an amazing amount of news.  Keegan leaves Newcastle and is then reported as having a meeting with Ashley just 8 days after resigning.  Man City get new owners which make Chelsea’s stars look like street beggars.  West Ham appoint Zola as a new manager and next day lose their shirt sponsor as XL Holidays go bust.  Continued

This week i’m putting a bit of thought into the Trading Fund tips.  Dangerous I know, but I think there are a couple of opportunities to increase the returns and let the other tips generated by the model ride.  The tips for the Premier League Fund stay as they are, it’s only the Trading Fund which is affected by my changes.

Having said all that the only changes today are reducing the strength of Arsenal v Newcastle and upping the stakes.  Whilst Arsenal did enjoy a good win midweek, Newcastle is still too weak in my model.  The model doesn’t yet reflect what appears to be a much stronger Newcastle than most of last season.  The upping of the stakes comes from a willingness to take more risk in the Trading Fund based on results.

Hoping for a first win this weekend for the Championship Fund after 2 weeks of losses.  That Fund now sits 10% below water.  Looking at the tips shows there is one bet which if it comes in could restore the Fund to a profitable position.  The bet is Barnsley away at Birmingham which at the time of writing was odds of 8.6 offering value of 40% over the models odds.  Whilst it’s unlikely this bet will come in today, the model is geared towards one of these longshots paying off at some point.

Turning to the Premiership, there’s a lay of Middlesbrough and the draw at Liverpool.  These bets make me nervous given an exposure for the Fund of 5% on the draw.  Furthermore, the draw is not an unreasonable result given the performance of the two teams last week.  Other bets of note are another 2 draws being layed at Blackburn v Hull and Fulham v Arsenal.

Gains for the Premier League Fund and losses for the Championship Fund left a net gain overall for the Trading Fund when the two were put together this weekend. Looking at the historic performance of the Championship Fund shows that a considerable amount of the gains come from a few wins at long odds. This may leave that Fund under water for a considerable time. It could also continue to weigh on the performance of the Trading Fund. This season could therefore see the Premier League Fund shine as it continues to impress.

Turning to individual matches this weekend, Middlesbrough was a large gain increasing the Premier League Fund by over 8%. It was just a shame the final game of the weekend hit the Fund for almost 6% as Newcastle held Man U to a draw. There were no large gains/losses on the Championship which is to be expected as i’m running it on a low risk strategy until it proves itself. Continued

Finally it’s here.  The long awaited new season of the Premier League kicks off with Arsenal v West Brom at 12.45pm on Saturday 16 August.

I must have been feeling aggressive when I wrote in my Premier League preview I would stake a maximum 20% of the betting fund on each bet this season.  Whilst it does give the largest return historically i’m just not willing to live with the wild returns that a losing run of bets would create.  So i’ve had what I hope is a moment of clarity and am setting the stake at a maximum 10%.  As for the largest bet thrown up by the model, i’m looking for an upset with Middlesbrough at home beating Spurs.

Continued

Here we are back for another season.  This season i’m including the Championship in my coverage.  The tips are now shown on the relevant pages under each Fund, links at the top of this page.  I haven’t had time to consider how I will adapt the Trading Fund tips on this first day - sure it’s only been 3 months!  But a general note is that I will only make changes to the tips thrown up by each algorithm if there is significant news.  I may adapt this appoach as we move through the season as I learn more. 

First match is Birmingham v Sheff Utd - come on you Blues!

Following on from the Premier League Fund, I have adapted the algorithm to the Championship.  As well as adding profits, the addition of a second Fund should also reduce the overall volatility of total invested funds.  This is Markowitz portfolio theory working its statistical magic.  Volatility is reduced since the performance of the Premier League and Championship models are completely uncorrelated.

Continued