This post is not about betting but I need to vent my anger at the UK and US government latest attempt at ‘magic’, a.k.a. quant-easing. Those of you who follow betting may be interested in the concept of ’something for nothing’ and so this post may be of interest.

When David Blane levitated an inch from the ground, it was impressive. But it was, of course, magic; a trick. “Yeah, David, that’s good and i’ve not seen it before, full marks. But, if you really could fly, you’d shoot off in to the air. Now, if you don’t mind, I was on my way to buy the latest edition of ‘Hello’, ‘TVKwik’ and ‘I’m in a stupified coma fed only by media tripe and kept alive by the knowledge that when I feel down I can always go shopping and buy something shiny’. See you next time”. Continued

A story about how a winning streak can fool and lead to a mispricing of risk.

Rare as apples 

When I was a young lad I remember holding an apple and wondering, in one of my more philosophical moments, how remote the chances were that I should be holding this particular apple.  It was a French apple and I began imagining all the apples in all the orchards in France.  This single apple was picked, packed and journeyed across the Channel.  It was then passed to one of many distributors and sold to one of a thousand shops selling a million apples.  What are the chances, I pondered, of seeing that apple on a tree in the orchard and then it landing in my hand days later.  I didn’t really know the chances of course, I just knew they were remote.  I also understood that since I had an apple in my hand, one apple from one orchard was always going to make that identical journey just as I had imagined it. 
Continued

There’s never been a wider choice of where or how to bet.  You can place bets online with traditional bookmakers such as Ladbrokes or William Hill or at one of the many betting exchanges such as Betfair or WBX.  However, although the product is the same, consider the cost before you place your bets.  And if you still use a traditional bookmaker, read on!
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The emergence of betting exchanges has allowed the public to keep a greater share of betting turnover and allowed a knowledge of sports betting markets to be rewarded. In this post I also cover the concept of value betting and probabilities.

Chance and probabilty

All us punters have one thing in common. We are all trying to beat the bookie. Or, with the emergence of betting exchanges, the guy on the other side of the bet. For the average punter betting is just entertainment, a few quid on a Saturday at the bookies or between friends in the pub. A detailed assessment of the likely outcome is given only moderate consideration. The entertainment is most often in making the bet and the excitement of having a few quid on whilst watching the event. Collecting the winnings of course also has its pleasures!
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