Gains for the Premier League Fund and losses for the Championship Fund left a net gain overall for the Trading Fund when the two were put together this weekend. Looking at the historic performance of the Championship Fund shows that a considerable amount of the gains come from a few wins at long odds. This may leave that Fund under water for a considerable time. It could also continue to weigh on the performance of the Trading Fund. This season could therefore see the Premier League Fund shine as it continues to impress.

Turning to individual matches this weekend, Middlesbrough was a large gain increasing the Premier League Fund by over 8%. It was just a shame the final game of the weekend hit the Fund for almost 6% as Newcastle held Man U to a draw. There were no large gains/losses on the Championship which is to be expected as i’m running it on a low risk strategy until it proves itself. Continued

Following on from the Premier League Fund, I have adapted the algorithm to the Championship.  As well as adding profits, the addition of a second Fund should also reduce the overall volatility of total invested funds.  This is Markowitz portfolio theory working its statistical magic.  Volatility is reduced since the performance of the Premier League and Championship models are completely uncorrelated.

Continued

Still a few weeks to go until the start of the Premier League for 08/09 but I thought I would lay out the expectations for the performance of the Funds for next season. 

After improving the algorithm, the greatest decision i’ve had to make is what level of risk to take.  On the one side, increasing stakes lead to higher returns but at the same time adds to the volatility of the Fund.  The biggest change in the current model over the model used for last season is a vastly reduced stake size.  The question is, how much volatility am I now comfortable with?

Continued

Following the success of last season, my thoughts obviously turned to whether this can be repeated. Or more accurately, what can be expected from the algorithm betting model in future seasons both in terms of return and the variability of those returns.

“Monte Carlo” is the name given to simulations which make use of computer generated random numbers to identify the range of possible outputs a model may generate in the ‘real world’.  Each random number generates an input from a user defined probability distribution which is run through the user’s model to produce a simulated outcome on each run.  Run this simulation thousands of times and you generate a probability distribution for the output of your model.

Continued

It’s been a while since I discussed the Premier League Team ratings on the blog. With recent changes to the algorithm I thought i’d record the current team points which you can see in the table below.

The variance versus the teams’ Premier League position is a measure of how well each team is playing compared to their position; i.e. how many points they’re earning in the league. Continued

How useful is yield as a performance measure?

There are many variables to measure the success of a betting system.  These range from the simple ’strike rate’ showing the percentage of bets won to ‘yield’ which, by incorporating the potential loss on a bet, includes some measure of risk.  It goes without saying that the longer a system has been in place and the more bets it has covered the more reliable it is in terms of predicting future results.   However given the same number of bets, a system with a high yield is not necessarily better than a system with a lower yield.  Betting against Derby is a low yielding bet since the risk of loss is low.  However if such bets offer positive value (i.e. net profit over time) and we exclude them simply because they are low yield we are giving up potential profits.

Continued

Betting exchanges claim that you will get 20% better prices in horse betting. Better prices to the horse player, simply means making more money from winners!  Great, everyone would want that…if the claim is true.

I decided to put the claim to the test! I created a scenario of betting the horses…at the track, online with a traditional online race book and at a betting exchange, www.ehorsex.com, to see which method is most profitable and by how much.  I looked at the results for all stakes races in 2007, starting on January 1st until June 30th, a total of 260 races.  In the end, I found that by betting at ehorseX, net profits were 23.9 to 32.4% better than if you were to bet the same amount, on the same horses, getting tracks odds. Now if you have already become an exchange player, better prices are what you have come to expect.  However, if you have yet to experience exchange betting, you may be unfamiliar with the value that they bring to the horse player.  You may also need more convincing as to the validity of these percentages.  Here is a detailed look at how this comparison was conducted.
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A story about how a winning streak can fool and lead to a mispricing of risk.

Rare as apples 

When I was a young lad I remember holding an apple and wondering, in one of my more philosophical moments, how remote the chances were that I should be holding this particular apple.  It was a French apple and I began imagining all the apples in all the orchards in France.  This single apple was picked, packed and journeyed across the Channel.  It was then passed to one of many distributors and sold to one of a thousand shops selling a million apples.  What are the chances, I pondered, of seeing that apple on a tree in the orchard and then it landing in my hand days later.  I didn’t really know the chances of course, I just knew they were remote.  I also understood that since I had an apple in my hand, one apple from one orchard was always going to make that identical journey just as I had imagined it. 
Continued

There’s never been a wider choice of where or how to bet.  You can place bets online with traditional bookmakers such as Ladbrokes or William Hill or at one of the many betting exchanges such as Betfair or WBX.  However, although the product is the same, consider the cost before you place your bets.  And if you still use a traditional bookmaker, read on!
Continued

The emergence of betting exchanges has allowed the public to keep a greater share of betting turnover and allowed a knowledge of sports betting markets to be rewarded. In this post I also cover the concept of value betting and probabilities.

Chance and probabilty

All us punters have one thing in common. We are all trying to beat the bookie. Or, with the emergence of betting exchanges, the guy on the other side of the bet. For the average punter betting is just entertainment, a few quid on a Saturday at the bookies or between friends in the pub. A detailed assessment of the likely outcome is given only moderate consideration. The entertainment is most often in making the bet and the excitement of having a few quid on whilst watching the event. Collecting the winnings of course also has its pleasures!
Continued