After the poor showing in the last week of August I was pleased to see September get off to a great start.  The Premier Fund recorded a gain of 16.5%, the Championship fund contributed a gain of just over 6% and the Trading Fund made hay with a gain of just under 24%.

A large part of the gains from last weekend came from Liverpool burying Man Utd at home.  Depsite what Andy Gray might have been looking at I thought Liverpool were the better team throughout the whole match.  They may have fallen to an early goal but apart from that lapse which came in the first few minutes Liverpool were very controlled.  I think the Reds are a great bet for the title if you want to see any decent return on your money. Continued

This week i’m putting a bit of thought into the Trading Fund tips.  Dangerous I know, but I think there are a couple of opportunities to increase the returns and let the other tips generated by the model ride.  The tips for the Premier League Fund stay as they are, it’s only the Trading Fund which is affected by my changes.

Having said all that the only changes today are reducing the strength of Arsenal v Newcastle and upping the stakes.  Whilst Arsenal did enjoy a good win midweek, Newcastle is still too weak in my model.  The model doesn’t yet reflect what appears to be a much stronger Newcastle than most of last season.  The upping of the stakes comes from a willingness to take more risk in the Trading Fund based on results.

Hoping for a first win this weekend for the Championship Fund after 2 weeks of losses.  That Fund now sits 10% below water.  Looking at the tips shows there is one bet which if it comes in could restore the Fund to a profitable position.  The bet is Barnsley away at Birmingham which at the time of writing was odds of 8.6 offering value of 40% over the models odds.  Whilst it’s unlikely this bet will come in today, the model is geared towards one of these longshots paying off at some point.

Turning to the Premiership, there’s a lay of Middlesbrough and the draw at Liverpool.  These bets make me nervous given an exposure for the Fund of 5% on the draw.  Furthermore, the draw is not an unreasonable result given the performance of the two teams last week.  Other bets of note are another 2 draws being layed at Blackburn v Hull and Fulham v Arsenal.

Good results for the Premier League Fund yesterday with a gain of around 14%. The Championship Fund lost for the second week however offsetting the gains in the Trading Fund. Whilst having a second fund was supposed to reduce volatility, having the same fund always winning and the other always losing was not what I had in mind.

As for today, i’m looking for home wins in all 3 Premier League matches.  I’m not making any adjustments to the tips in the Trading Fund.  Whilst Ronaldo is injured for Man U it hardly puts a large hole in their squad.  It will of course be interesting to see Scolari start at Chelsea and whether Keegan can continue a good finish to last season.  Also what sort of season will Man City have under Mark Hughes while the owner Shinawatra faces an arrest warrant from Thailand? 

Finally it’s here.  The long awaited new season of the Premier League kicks off with Arsenal v West Brom at 12.45pm on Saturday 16 August.

I must have been feeling aggressive when I wrote in my Premier League preview I would stake a maximum 20% of the betting fund on each bet this season.  Whilst it does give the largest return historically i’m just not willing to live with the wild returns that a losing run of bets would create.  So i’ve had what I hope is a moment of clarity and am setting the stake at a maximum 10%.  As for the largest bet thrown up by the model, i’m looking for an upset with Middlesbrough at home beating Spurs.

Continued

Here we are back for another season.  This season i’m including the Championship in my coverage.  The tips are now shown on the relevant pages under each Fund, links at the top of this page.  I haven’t had time to consider how I will adapt the Trading Fund tips on this first day - sure it’s only been 3 months!  But a general note is that I will only make changes to the tips thrown up by each algorithm if there is significant news.  I may adapt this appoach as we move through the season as I learn more. 

First match is Birmingham v Sheff Utd - come on you Blues!

This final week has thrown up some interesting odds on the betting exchanges as teams battle it out for the lucrative prizes at both ends of the table.

The odds which stand-out the most for me are not any one team’s odds in isolation but the comparitive odds of the teams playing the potential title winners, Man Utd and Chelsea. Wigan are at odds of 15 (too high) at home to Man U and Bolton at 24 (too low) away at Chelsea. Bolton must not win if Chelsea are to lift the title. Chelsea have not lost at home since I was knee-high. Man U could lose and still take the title. Bolton are in poor form and Wigan playing well.

If Wigan only have a 7% chance of winning at home surely Bolton have less than a 4% chance away? Or the converse is true. Either way the gap should be wider. Continued

Both Newcatle and Chelsea are on a high. Whilst Newcastle are only playing for position they will want to make the most of their current form. I can see an upset if Chelsea don’t get the first goal. I just hope Drogba doesn’t fall over as much. After all he is very delicate, poor fella. Continued

Wins yesterday across all funds including a good win on the Fulham game. The Balanced Fund managed a gain of 3.2% on stakes of less than 10% of the Fund; a return on investment of over 30% which pushed the current yield up to 13.2%. This came mostly on the back of the Fulham win as the strike rate actually fell from 72.3% to 70.4%. It’s good to see that when you only pick 3 winners from 7 that profits still come from somewhere. Consistent returns with a very low risk of large losses in any week is the aim. Continued

So here we are with just 2 games left now in the season and still so much to play for. The greatest value in today’s odds are away bets on Sunderland, Spurs, Pompey and Wigan which all offer greater than 50% value. However, due to a lack of consistency in my model’s ability to profit on away wins I don’t back any of them but rather lay the home teams.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below. Continued