With the second half of the season now well under way and just 5 points separating those in the bottom half of the table, which three teams will eventually face the drop? After a great start to the season, Hull seem to be going backwards. Tottenham on the other hand started badly but have lifted themselves out of the bottom 3. But who has the legs to make it to the end?

The following table shows the algorithm’s view of team strength. The number of points represents the ‘power’ of a team. The higher the points, the stronger the team. Hull may still have a league ranking of 9 but this is mostly from their great start. They’re actually languishing near bottom in terms of team strength with just 17.27 points versus Totttenham with 63.60. Continued

After the poor showing in the last week of August I was pleased to see September get off to a great start.  The Premier Fund recorded a gain of 16.5%, the Championship fund contributed a gain of just over 6% and the Trading Fund made hay with a gain of just under 24%.

A large part of the gains from last weekend came from Liverpool burying Man Utd at home.  Depsite what Andy Gray might have been looking at I thought Liverpool were the better team throughout the whole match.  They may have fallen to an early goal but apart from that lapse which came in the first few minutes Liverpool were very controlled.  I think the Reds are a great bet for the title if you want to see any decent return on your money. Continued

It’s been 2 weeks since the last set of games and August was not a great month performance wise.  The tips for the Premier League only just scraped a positive return of 2.84%.  The Championship and Trading Fund did even worse with -23% and -31% respectively.  It wasn’t great timing to double the stakes in the Trading Fund and only goes to confirm the idiocy of chasing gains.

2 weeks in the Premier League has once again seen an amazing amount of news.  Keegan leaves Newcastle and is then reported as having a meeting with Ashley just 8 days after resigning.  Man City get new owners which make Chelsea’s stars look like street beggars.  West Ham appoint Zola as a new manager and next day lose their shirt sponsor as XL Holidays go bust.  Continued

This week i’m putting a bit of thought into the Trading Fund tips.  Dangerous I know, but I think there are a couple of opportunities to increase the returns and let the other tips generated by the model ride.  The tips for the Premier League Fund stay as they are, it’s only the Trading Fund which is affected by my changes.

Having said all that the only changes today are reducing the strength of Arsenal v Newcastle and upping the stakes.  Whilst Arsenal did enjoy a good win midweek, Newcastle is still too weak in my model.  The model doesn’t yet reflect what appears to be a much stronger Newcastle than most of last season.  The upping of the stakes comes from a willingness to take more risk in the Trading Fund based on results.

Hoping for a first win this weekend for the Championship Fund after 2 weeks of losses.  That Fund now sits 10% below water.  Looking at the tips shows there is one bet which if it comes in could restore the Fund to a profitable position.  The bet is Barnsley away at Birmingham which at the time of writing was odds of 8.6 offering value of 40% over the models odds.  Whilst it’s unlikely this bet will come in today, the model is geared towards one of these longshots paying off at some point.

Turning to the Premiership, there’s a lay of Middlesbrough and the draw at Liverpool.  These bets make me nervous given an exposure for the Fund of 5% on the draw.  Furthermore, the draw is not an unreasonable result given the performance of the two teams last week.  Other bets of note are another 2 draws being layed at Blackburn v Hull and Fulham v Arsenal.

Gains for the Premier League Fund and losses for the Championship Fund left a net gain overall for the Trading Fund when the two were put together this weekend. Looking at the historic performance of the Championship Fund shows that like a high-stakes texas hold em tournament, a considerable amount of the gains come from a few wins at long odds. This may leave that Fund under water for a considerable time. It could also continue to weigh on the performance of the Trading Fund. This season could therefore see the Premier League Fund shine as it continues to impress.

Turning to individual matches this weekend, Middlesbrough was a large gain increasing the Premier League Fund by over 8%. It was just a shame the final game of the weekend hit the Fund for almost 6% as Newcastle held Man U to a draw. There were no large gains/losses on the Championship which is to be expected as i’m running it on a low risk strategy until it proves itself. Continued

Good results for the Premier League Fund yesterday with a gain of around 14%. The Championship Fund lost for the second week however offsetting the gains in the Trading Fund. Whilst having a second fund was supposed to reduce volatility, having the same fund always winning and the other always losing was not what I had in mind.

As for today, i’m looking for home wins in all 3 Premier League matches.  I’m not making any adjustments to the tips in the Trading Fund.  Whilst Ronaldo is injured for Man U it hardly puts a large hole in their squad.  It will of course be interesting to see Scolari start at Chelsea and whether Keegan can continue a good finish to last season.  Also what sort of season will Man City have under Mark Hughes while the owner Shinawatra faces an arrest warrant from Thailand? 

Finally it’s here.  The long awaited new season of the Premier League kicks off with Arsenal v West Brom at 12.45pm on Saturday 16 August.

I must have been feeling aggressive when I wrote in my Premier League preview I would stake a maximum 20% of the betting fund on each bet this season.  Whilst it does give the largest return historically i’m just not willing to live with the wild returns that a losing run of bets would create.  So i’ve had what I hope is a moment of clarity and am setting the stake at a maximum 10%.  As for the largest bet thrown up by the model, i’m looking for an upset with Middlesbrough at home beating Spurs.

Continued

This final week has thrown up some interesting odds on the betting exchanges as teams battle it out for the lucrative prizes at both ends of the table.

The odds which stand-out the most for me are not any one team’s odds in isolation but the comparitive odds of the teams playing the potential title winners, Man Utd and Chelsea. Wigan are at odds of 15 (too high) at home to Man U and Bolton at 24 (too low) away at Chelsea. Bolton must not win if Chelsea are to lift the title. Chelsea have not lost at home since I was knee-high. Man U could lose and still take the title. Bolton are in poor form and Wigan playing well.

If Wigan only have a 7% chance of winning at home surely Bolton have less than a 4% chance away? Or the converse is true. Either way the gap should be wider. Continued

All funds gained this week with the largest win coming from backing Fulham against Birmingham. The best ROI came from laying Villa at home to Wigan. The Balanced Fund only managed 5 winners from 10 but still gained 4.7%. The Trading and Aggressive Funds gained over 14% and 12% respectively with 8 winning bets from 10 matches.

Although these are good gains in one week they come at a price. The Trading Fund risked more than the value of the Fund in the 10 matches when aggregated compared to an equivalent figure of below 30% for the Balanced Fund. Continued