I’ve been tinkering with the algorithm model over the past week or so.  The result is lower risk and higher yield - the perfect combination.  This is of course based on the results output from the new algorithm.  In some way this goes without saying but I think it’s always good to remember this point.  If the model’s wrong then performance will be worse than predicted.  How much worse?  The trouble is you cannot measure what you don’t know!
Continued

There’s never been a wider choice of where or how to bet.  You can place bets online with traditional bookmakers such as Ladbrokes or William Hill or at one of the many betting exchanges such as Betfair or WBX.  However, although the product is the same, consider the cost before you place your bets.  And if you still use a traditional bookmaker, read on!
Continued

The emergence of betting exchanges has allowed the public to keep a greater share of betting turnover and allowed a knowledge of sports betting markets to be rewarded. In this post I also cover the concept of value betting and probabilities.

Chance and probabilty

All us punters have one thing in common. We are all trying to beat the bookie. Or, with the emergence of betting exchanges, the guy on the other side of the bet. For the average punter betting is just entertainment, a few quid on a Saturday at the bookies or between friends in the pub. A detailed assessment of the likely outcome is given only moderate consideration. The entertainment is most often in making the bet and the excitement of having a few quid on whilst watching the event. Collecting the winnings of course also has its pleasures!
Continued

This is the first week I am discussing the tips before the games.  Since I understand the whole site is not of much interest unless there is a payback for the reader I will discuss December’s games before they are played. 

Below you will see the betting exchange prices and the Beta fund algorithm prices and a % value figure.  Where the % is positive it indicates the exchange price is above the Algorithm price and the team should be backed.  Conversely a negative % indicates a lay bet.  If you don’t know about exchange betting check out www.betfair.com which is the largest but 5% commission and www.wbx.com which although less popular has a lower 3% commission.

It should be noted of course that the exchange prices below were ‘correct at time of going to press’.  They may not therefore be the same price now or at kickoff.  HOWEVER, when I update prices I update both teams and therefore do not create a positive/negative returns from price movements. 

A little bit about risk…..The beta fund since the start of this 07/08 season has a 21.7% mean average monthly fund return with an 11.7% standard deviation of those returns.  This is a coefficient of variation of 0.54.  This is lower (and therefore better) than the S&P500 of around 0.8. HOWEVER, this only includes August-November.  This is not a long time when considering what the expected returns from the fund will be.   Also, with only 8 rounds of matches gone we shouldn’t even be considering this ’sample’ of results as reflective of the algorithm’s long term results; i.e. using standard deviations as a measure of risk.

Earthquakes….Taking a lay bet of 1% of the fund at a price of 25 would be a 24% cut in the fund value if it comes in.  So far, the biggest % loss this season on one match is 12% when Bolton (priced at 8.4) beat Man U at home.  This didn’t stop the fund returning a +2% gain on that week however! So, whilst week to week we make good gains and all seems well you must consider the risk of the earthquake hitting and the damage this can do.  This can of course work in our favour as the largest gain this season has been 13% when Birmingham (priced at 9.0) beat Spurs at White Hart Lane.

OK, so turning to the games this weekend.  Sorry about the formatting of the figures below. If anyone knows how to embed tables in Wordpress i’d love to know.  Tips are attached as a file as well - see link below.

Of interest are the 2 longshots Sunderland and Derby away at Chelsea and Man U respectively.  Whilst the Algorithm backs Derby it is laying Sunderland and therefore exposed to a loss of £24 on every £1 bet taken.  The other standout is Reading which is underpriced by the exchanges by 55% versus the Algorithm.  Their last win was October and they’re playing Liverpool who last lost a game in October.

I normally back/lay the same amount being 2% of the fund; i.e. the stake is the same whether backing or laying.  There are so many combinations to consider depending on your risk preference.  Do note however that the more bets you place from the tips below the closer you will get to the fund return.  The less bets you place the less likely your return will be to reflect the fund return - higher or lower!

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
Aston Villa 3.04 2.22 -27% Portsmouth 2.56 3.85 51%
Chelsea 1.10 1.21 10% Sunderland 31.24 25.00 -20%
Everton 1.30 1.62 25% Fulham 8.49 7.00 -18%
Man United 1.10 1.13 3% Derby 33.31 38.00 14%
Newcastle 1.68 1.90 13% Birmingham 4.40 5.30 20%
Reading 14.63 6.60 -55% Liverpool 1.81 1.70 -6%

Beta fund tips 8 12 07

The 2 Premier League funds diverged this weekend.  Whilst the Alpha Fund took a slight loss, the Beta Fund managed a moderate gain.   As the Beta fund is an enhanced version of the Alpha fund it was good to see the Beta fund continuing to outperform.   See the stats below for relative performance of the 2 funds.

It was actually a very pleasing result for the Beta fund as it overcame the setback of laying Bolton v Man U (Bolton winning 1-0).  At market odds of 8.4 the win for Bolton was a rare event; even rarer at the Algorithm’s price of 11.85.  Of course, these rare events are by definition expected and therefore cannot be excluded as ‘unlucky’ or ‘one-offs’.  It’s just good to see the other match bets more than offsetting the loss in the same week.  The weekly gain is however easy to comprehend once you note the Algorithm backed all 5 winning away teams this week. View the detailed Beta fund results here.

PERFORMANCE OF ALGORITHM BETTING PREMIER LEAGUE FUNDS:

Weekly gain/loss in the fund (movement in the fund since last week): Alpha -2.9%, Beta +4.8%

Winning weeks (number of weeks showing gains/ total number of weeks since fund started): Alpha 12/14, Beta 7/7

% gain to date (% increase since the fund started): Alpha 37.2%, Beta +121.6%

Risk (max weekly gain/max weekly loss, insufficient data for standard deviations): Alpha 6.9%/-2.9%, Beta +49.6%/+4.8%