Well, that’s it; the end of the season. A very profitable one apart from this final week. Whilst there was no financial gain for the Balanced Fund in this last week there was a lot to learn from the divergence in the market’s and model’s odds on the relegation and title games.

Quite simply the Balanced Fund model took no account of the impact of the final week relegation and title battle. Hence it was drawn into betting against Birmingham, Fulham and Reading who fought against relegation. The same went for Everton and Villa who were fighting for the last European place. It also backed Wigan and Bolton against Man U and Chelsea as they fought for the title. In all, 7 matches were influenced by the relegation/title race which the market took account of in it’s odds.  The Balanced Fund lost on 5 of these 7 bets. Continued

All funds gained this week with the largest win coming from backing Fulham against Birmingham. The best ROI came from laying Villa at home to Wigan. The Balanced Fund only managed 5 winners from 10 but still gained 4.7%. The Trading and Aggressive Funds gained over 14% and 12% respectively with 8 winning bets from 10 matches.

Although these are good gains in one week they come at a price. The Trading Fund risked more than the value of the Fund in the 10 matches when aggregated compared to an equivalent figure of below 30% for the Balanced Fund. Continued

No strange results in this week’s games after all; worth noting after all the hype that comes at this time of year. Birmingham nearly caused an upset - but didn’t. Although Fulham did win away at Man City, this result in itself is not too surprising given the recent form of both teams. Good luck to Sven as he looks like he’ll be moving again at the end of the season.

As for this week’s performance, there was a rare divergence in the performance of the Funds with the Aggressive and Balanced Funds seeing gains whilst the Trading Fund lost out. I’m surprised the Trading Fund didn’t lose more than 3.5% as it only managed 4 out of 10 winning match bets. Continued

A stellar week of results with all Funds gaining strongly. The Trading Fund performs the best again as it races past 100% growth with a yield of over 8%. The Balanced Fund continues a steady and profitable path with a yield now just shy of 11% and strike rate of 70%.

Continued

Respectable gains this week across the board as all 3 funds turn a profit. The Balanced Fund continues to impress with low variance in earnings week to week and a yield now standing at 9.49% after 122 bets. It also managed 9 winning match bets out of 10 in this weeks games.

As for the targets, the Aggressive Fund is 115 days behind target; the Balanced Fund 17 days ahead and the Trading Fund 121 days ahead. Continued

All 3 funds managed an increase this week. Both the Aggressive and Trading Funds showed strong gains and gained more than budget on the target £1million. The Balanced Fund showed a meagre increase and actually lost ground on the budget and now stands just 11 days ahead of it’s target at this stage. Continued

The Newcastle fight-back against Spurs cost me this weekend. Looks like Kev’ means business after all.

The Aggressive Fund stood by it’s name as it lost almost 12% this week, though it did gain 24% for the month of March. This fund is an incarnation of the algorithm which started in September 07. It hasn’t changed much since and I don’t amend it now, I keep it going for the sake of history. I don’t think it will ever get back on target as, in hindsight, it was too structured toward historic results; i.e. ignored ‘what if’ scenarios.
Continued