Good results for the Premier League Fund yesterday with a gain of around 14%. The Championship Fund lost for the second week however offsetting the gains in the Trading Fund. Whilst having a second fund was supposed to reduce volatility, having the same fund always winning and the other always losing was not what I had in mind.

As for today, i’m looking for home wins in all 3 Premier League matches.  I’m not making any adjustments to the tips in the Trading Fund.  Whilst Ronaldo is injured for Man U it hardly puts a large hole in their squad.  It will of course be interesting to see Scolari start at Chelsea and whether Keegan can continue a good finish to last season.  Also what sort of season will Man City have under Mark Hughes while the owner Shinawatra faces an arrest warrant from Thailand? 

Finally it’s here.  The long awaited new season of the Premier League kicks off with Arsenal v West Brom at 12.45pm on Saturday 16 August.

I must have been feeling aggressive when I wrote in my Premier League preview I would stake a maximum 20% of the betting fund on each bet this season.  Whilst it does give the largest return historically i’m just not willing to live with the wild returns that a losing run of bets would create.  So i’ve had what I hope is a moment of clarity and am setting the stake at a maximum 10%.  As for the largest bet thrown up by the model, i’m looking for an upset with Middlesbrough at home beating Spurs.

Continued

This final week has thrown up some interesting odds on the betting exchanges as teams battle it out for the lucrative prizes at both ends of the table.

The odds which stand-out the most for me are not any one team’s odds in isolation but the comparitive odds of the teams playing the potential title winners, Man Utd and Chelsea. Wigan are at odds of 15 (too high) at home to Man U and Bolton at 24 (too low) away at Chelsea. Bolton must not win if Chelsea are to lift the title. Chelsea have not lost at home since I was knee-high. Man U could lose and still take the title. Bolton are in poor form and Wigan playing well.

If Wigan only have a 7% chance of winning at home surely Bolton have less than a 4% chance away? Or the converse is true. Either way the gap should be wider. Continued

Both Newcatle and Chelsea are on a high. Whilst Newcastle are only playing for position they will want to make the most of their current form. I can see an upset if Chelsea don’t get the first goal. I just hope Drogba doesn’t fall over as much. After all he is very delicate, poor fella. Continued

Wins yesterday across all funds including a good win on the Fulham game. The Balanced Fund managed a gain of 3.2% on stakes of less than 10% of the Fund; a return on investment of over 30% which pushed the current yield up to 13.2%. This came mostly on the back of the Fulham win as the strike rate actually fell from 72.3% to 70.4%. It’s good to see that when you only pick 3 winners from 7 that profits still come from somewhere. Consistent returns with a very low risk of large losses in any week is the aim. Continued

So here we are with just 2 games left now in the season and still so much to play for. The greatest value in today’s odds are away bets on Sunderland, Spurs, Pompey and Wigan which all offer greater than 50% value. However, due to a lack of consistency in my model’s ability to profit on away wins I don’t back any of them but rather lay the home teams.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below. Continued

I have Derby at odds of 12.88 in the Balanced Fund to win this game which means a back bet at the current odds of 13 on the betting exchanges. Given the value of just 1% this leads to a very small bet and is not going to mean a move to Monte Carlo just yet should Derby win.

I only real follow the Balanced Fund these days as the other 2 Funds use the out of date algorithm - though they are still up more in percentage terms. However all could change today as they both have a very large bet against Derby. I’m torn as to what I want the result to be. Actually, scratch that, I’ve come to not care about individual games. Whilst this might appear somewhat lacking in emotion it is actually where I should be as a professional gambler - wannabe! Continued

Excellent fun watching the relegation race and the goals go in one by one yesterday. Birmingham were 2-0 up at home to the mighty Reds, whilst Fulham were down 2-0 away at Man City and Bolton up 0-1 away at Spurs. Then it was musical chairs and all change. Fulham somehow stormed back to win 2-3 away, Birmingham lost their lead to draw 2-2 and Bolton held on to a 1-1 result at Spurs. Meanwhile Sunderland secured their place in the Premier League and ensured Boro were left hanging by scoring a late winning goal to make it 3-2 to the Black Cats. Continued

Quite a lot to think about in today’s games. Aside from the title race potentially being won today there are plenty of matches which have upset written all over them. Theoretically there are 7 teams fighting for the last 2 Premiership places still up for grabs for season 08/09. Each stands a fair chance of winning their games today. Birmingham are fortunate to have a home tie as they play Liverpool. I’m taking account of these risks in my Trading Fund tips. Continued

Caught out by the early start of Villa v Birmingham so no time to comment on the games.

Today’s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below. Continued