There’s never been a wider choice of where or how to bet.  You can place bets online with traditional bookmakers such as Ladbrokes or William Hill or at one of the many betting exchanges such as Betfair or WBX.  However, although the product is the same, consider the cost before you place your bets.  And if you still use a traditional bookmaker, read on!
Continued

This is the first week I am discussing the tips before the games.  Since I understand the whole site is not of much interest unless there is a payback for the reader I will discuss December’s games before they are played. 

Below you will see the betting exchange prices and the Beta fund algorithm prices and a % value figure.  Where the % is positive it indicates the exchange price is above the Algorithm price and the team should be backed.  Conversely a negative % indicates a lay bet.  If you don’t know about exchange betting check out www.betfair.com which is the largest but 5% commission and www.wbx.com which although less popular has a lower 3% commission.

It should be noted of course that the exchange prices below were ‘correct at time of going to press’.  They may not therefore be the same price now or at kickoff.  HOWEVER, when I update prices I update both teams and therefore do not create a positive/negative returns from price movements. 

A little bit about risk…..The beta fund since the start of this 07/08 season has a 21.7% mean average monthly fund return with an 11.7% standard deviation of those returns.  This is a coefficient of variation of 0.54.  This is lower (and therefore better) than the S&P500 of around 0.8. HOWEVER, this only includes August-November.  This is not a long time when considering what the expected returns from the fund will be.   Also, with only 8 rounds of matches gone we shouldn’t even be considering this ’sample’ of results as reflective of the algorithm’s long term results; i.e. using standard deviations as a measure of risk.

Earthquakes….Taking a lay bet of 1% of the fund at a price of 25 would be a 24% cut in the fund value if it comes in.  So far, the biggest % loss this season on one match is 12% when Bolton (priced at 8.4) beat Man U at home.  This didn’t stop the fund returning a +2% gain on that week however! So, whilst week to week we make good gains and all seems well you must consider the risk of the earthquake hitting and the damage this can do.  This can of course work in our favour as the largest gain this season has been 13% when Birmingham (priced at 9.0) beat Spurs at White Hart Lane.

OK, so turning to the games this weekend.  Sorry about the formatting of the figures below. If anyone knows how to embed tables in Wordpress i’d love to know.  Tips are attached as a file as well - see link below.

Of interest are the 2 longshots Sunderland and Derby away at Chelsea and Man U respectively.  Whilst the Algorithm backs Derby it is laying Sunderland and therefore exposed to a loss of £24 on every £1 bet taken.  The other standout is Reading which is underpriced by the exchanges by 55% versus the Algorithm.  Their last win was October and they’re playing Liverpool who last lost a game in October.

I normally back/lay the same amount being 2% of the fund; i.e. the stake is the same whether backing or laying.  There are so many combinations to consider depending on your risk preference.  Do note however that the more bets you place from the tips below the closer you will get to the fund return.  The less bets you place the less likely your return will be to reflect the fund return - higher or lower!

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
Aston Villa 3.04 2.22 -27% Portsmouth 2.56 3.85 51%
Chelsea 1.10 1.21 10% Sunderland 31.24 25.00 -20%
Everton 1.30 1.62 25% Fulham 8.49 7.00 -18%
Man United 1.10 1.13 3% Derby 33.31 38.00 14%
Newcastle 1.68 1.90 13% Birmingham 4.40 5.30 20%
Reading 14.63 6.60 -55% Liverpool 1.81 1.70 -6%

Beta fund tips 8 12 07