Here we are back for another season.  This season i’m including the Championship in my coverage.  The tips are now shown on the relevant pages under each Fund, links at the top of this page.  I haven’t had time to consider how I will adapt the Trading Fund tips on this first day - sure it’s only been 3 months!  But a general note is that I will only make changes to the tips thrown up by each algorithm if there is significant news.  I may adapt this appoach as we move through the season as I learn more. 

First match is Birmingham v Sheff Utd - come on you Blues!

Not a great day yesterday as even though most of the results went as expected the odds were not showing value and hence we went against a number of favourites including Chelsea and Man U.  Birmingham did as expected and beat a triumphant Spurs.  It’ll be interesting to watch Spurs over the rest of the season to see if Ramos can raise them.

Just 2 games today.

Bolton v Liverpool.  Neither side is showing great form.  Liverpool have something to prove but that really hasn’t spurred them on before.  Bolton hover over the drop zone.
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A big loss on the Man City game as they turned over Man U at Old Trafford.  That result has given some very useful information to use in the algorithm model and on first look I am getting some more sensible odds out of the model now.  I will post the results later in the week.
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Hoping for better luck this week though as usual there are some scary fixtures.   The largest stake at risk and therefore potential loss is a Derby win at home to Tottenham.  This alone would cost the Fund over a third of it’s current value.  Today’s betting tips are shown and discussed below.  To view a history of all bets and the Fund results in detail go here.  To see a summary of the Fund’s progress against the target £1million go here.
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A good day yesterday as all 4 tips were winning bets.  Today’s betting tips are shown and discussed below.  To view a history of all bets and the Fund results in detail go here.  To see a summary of the Fund’s progress against the target £1million go here.

Chelsea v Reading.  Only 8% value in laying Chelsea so only a small stake is taken. Reading market odds of 20 are great value against the algorithm calculated odds but under this new algorithm no backing bets are placed.

Derby v Man City.  A major game for the Fund as there is a massive 98% value on Derby.  Derby have only 1 game all season and Man City are fighting for a place in Europe. However, Man City have gone off the boil in recent games and are not so strong away from home.  A win for Derby would hit the Fund for around 20%.
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Below are today’s betting tips.  A good day yesterday, the results of which I will post once all this weekend’s games are finished.

Man City v West Ham.  The algorithm still has Man City rated way below their form though they did lose last week.   West Ham are priced much shorter than the market due to the low rating of Man City.  The algorithm therefore tips an away win.

Wigan v Everton.  The market odds in this match are much closer to the algorithm’s odds.  Indeed Everton is priced just below the market odds with 0% value due to rounding.  Another away win is therefore tipped.
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The midweek Premier league news suggests this is going to be a really interesting weekend for the algorithm.  Harry stays at Pompey minus 4 first team players, Newcastle get Keegan and the Dubai Government is trying to buy Liverpool.  None of which the algorithm takes into account as the effect cannot be reliably quantified.  I cannot see the Liverpool news influencing play but certainly there is consideration needed for Portsmouth and Newcastle.  I will deal with that as I comment on each game and the betting tips below.  Odds and stakes are shown at the bottom of this post.
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This is the first week I am discussing the tips before the games.  Since I understand the whole site is not of much interest unless there is a payback for the reader I will discuss December’s games before they are played. 

Below you will see the betting exchange prices and the Beta fund algorithm prices and a % value figure.  Where the % is positive it indicates the exchange price is above the Algorithm price and the team should be backed.  Conversely a negative % indicates a lay bet.  If you don’t know about exchange betting check out www.betfair.com which is the largest but 5% commission and www.wbx.com which although less popular has a lower 3% commission.

It should be noted of course that the exchange prices below were ‘correct at time of going to press’.  They may not therefore be the same price now or at kickoff.  HOWEVER, when I update prices I update both teams and therefore do not create a positive/negative returns from price movements. 

A little bit about risk…..The beta fund since the start of this 07/08 season has a 21.7% mean average monthly fund return with an 11.7% standard deviation of those returns.  This is a coefficient of variation of 0.54.  This is lower (and therefore better) than the S&P500 of around 0.8. HOWEVER, this only includes August-November.  This is not a long time when considering what the expected returns from the fund will be.   Also, with only 8 rounds of matches gone we shouldn’t even be considering this ’sample’ of results as reflective of the algorithm’s long term results; i.e. using standard deviations as a measure of risk.

Earthquakes….Taking a lay bet of 1% of the fund at a price of 25 would be a 24% cut in the fund value if it comes in.  So far, the biggest % loss this season on one match is 12% when Bolton (priced at 8.4) beat Man U at home.  This didn’t stop the fund returning a +2% gain on that week however! So, whilst week to week we make good gains and all seems well you must consider the risk of the earthquake hitting and the damage this can do.  This can of course work in our favour as the largest gain this season has been 13% when Birmingham (priced at 9.0) beat Spurs at White Hart Lane.

OK, so turning to the games this weekend.  Sorry about the formatting of the figures below. If anyone knows how to embed tables in Wordpress i’d love to know.  Tips are attached as a file as well - see link below.

Of interest are the 2 longshots Sunderland and Derby away at Chelsea and Man U respectively.  Whilst the Algorithm backs Derby it is laying Sunderland and therefore exposed to a loss of £24 on every £1 bet taken.  The other standout is Reading which is underpriced by the exchanges by 55% versus the Algorithm.  Their last win was October and they’re playing Liverpool who last lost a game in October.

I normally back/lay the same amount being 2% of the fund; i.e. the stake is the same whether backing or laying.  There are so many combinations to consider depending on your risk preference.  Do note however that the more bets you place from the tips below the closer you will get to the fund return.  The less bets you place the less likely your return will be to reflect the fund return - higher or lower!

HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
Aston Villa 3.04 2.22 -27% Portsmouth 2.56 3.85 51%
Chelsea 1.10 1.21 10% Sunderland 31.24 25.00 -20%
Everton 1.30 1.62 25% Fulham 8.49 7.00 -18%
Man United 1.10 1.13 3% Derby 33.31 38.00 14%
Newcastle 1.68 1.90 13% Birmingham 4.40 5.30 20%
Reading 14.63 6.60 -55% Liverpool 1.81 1.70 -6%

Beta fund tips 8 12 07