It’s a nervous weekend of games after last week’s losses.  Although 2 losing weeks on the trot is not an unknown for the model it is a remote event and one I do not want to see played out this weekend.  Therefore I have more than my fingers crossed that we get back on track with this weekend’s selections.

I have made some changes to the algorithm, albeit minor.  It was just a bit of tweaking of the input variables which has resulted in improved performance over all seasons and more importantly, this season. 

The best value today is backing Birmingham away offering 90% value at Bolton whereas the closest odds produced by our model versus the market is Arsenal with just 4% value.   One point of interest is the model lays Portsmouth which is the first time in recent times the market odds have been priced too short to offer value in backing Pompey.  This is likely due to Portsmouth’s loss last week combined with the very high rating the model has for Liverpool.

DATE HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value  AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value
22/12/07 Arsenal 1.49 1.55 4%  Tottenham 6.44 7.80 21%
22/12/07 Aston Villa 1.31 2.04 56%  Man City 9.71 4.80 -51%
22/12/07 Bolton 3.55 1.88 -47%  Birmingham 2.64 5.00 90%
22/12/07 Fulham 1.46 2.22 52%  Wigan 6.73 3.90 -42%
22/12/07 Liverpool 1.33 1.58 19%  Portsmouth 9.12 7.80 -14%
22/12/07 Middlesbrough 2.01 2.30 14%  West Ham 3.91 3.50 -10%
22/12/07 Reading 1.32 1.88 42%  Sunderland 9.29 5.20 -44%